低库存现实和需求走弱预期交织，有色延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings are as follows: - Copper: Mid - term outlook is "oscillation" [6] - Alumina: Mid - long term outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [8] - Aluminum: Short - term outlook is "strong oscillation", mid - long term consumption may face pressure [9] - Aluminum alloy: Short - term outlook is "spot is weak in the off - season, the market follows aluminum and is strong", mid - long term outlook is that "spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound" [12] - Zinc: Outlook is "oscillation on the weak side" [13] - Lead: Outlook is "oscillation" [17] - Nickel: Short - term outlook is "wide - range oscillation", mid - long term can "short on rebounds" [23] - Stainless steel: Short - term outlook is "range oscillation" [25] - Tin: Outlook is "oscillation" [27] Report's Core View - The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weakening demand are intertwined, and the non - ferrous metals market will continue to oscillate. In the short and medium term, the weak US dollar, low LME inventory, and weakening demand are intertwined. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities, and short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin can be cautiously considered. In the long term, the demand prospects of basic metals are still uncertain, and opportunities to short on rallies for some varieties with supply surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - View: The Fed maintains the interest rate unchanged, and copper prices oscillate. - Analysis: US May labor market data is better than expected; global copper mining giant Antofagasta starts mid - year negotiations; China's electrolytic copper production increases; spot premiums decline; copper inventory decreases; Glencore buys Russian copper; Trump raises tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. - Logic: Overseas economy may continue to weaken. Supply is tight due to falling processing fees and smelter maintenance. Demand weakens in the off - season, and there is a risk of tariff increase on copper. - Outlook: Copper supply constraints remain, and low inventory supports prices. Copper may oscillate at a high level in the short term [6] Alumina - View: The number of warehouse receipts is at a low level, and the monthly spread of the alumina futures market widens. - Analysis: Spot prices decline; shipping freight increases; warehouse receipts decrease. - Logic: In the short and medium term, there is no shortage of ore, but warehouse receipt depletion is obvious. In the long term, events have limited impact without further fermentation. - Outlook: Mid - long term outlook is oscillation on the weak side. Short - term positive spreads or shorting can be considered after the far - month contract rises further [7][8] Aluminum - View: Low inventory and high premiums lead to high - level oscillation of aluminum prices. - Analysis: Spot prices decline; inventory decreases; geopolitical events occur; new tariff policies are introduced. - Logic: Short - term geopolitical and squeezing risks push up prices. Mid - long term consumption may face pressure. - Outlook: Short - term prices are strongly oscillating, and mid - long term consumption may be under pressure. Short - term positive spreads can be considered, and mid - long term shorting on rallies is recommended [9][10] Aluminum Alloy - View: The transaction prices of scrap aluminum and spot increase, and the aluminum alloy futures market rises. - Analysis: Spot prices decline; relevant policies are introduced; car companies make payment commitments. - Logic: Short - term pressure in the off - season is high, but low inventory of electrolytic aluminum drives prices up. Mid - long term demand is expected to recover seasonally. - Outlook: Short - term spot is weak in the off - season, and the market follows aluminum and is strong. Mid - long term spot ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rebound [10][12] Zinc - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate on the weak side. - Analysis: Spot premiums are different in different regions; inventory increases; a mine's production plan is announced. - Logic: Macro uncertainty exists. Supply is loose, and demand is in the off - season. Inventory accumulates, and prices may decline further. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate on the weak side [12][13] Lead - View: Cost support is stable, and lead prices oscillate. - Analysis: Scrap battery prices rise; lead ingot prices increase; inventory changes; some enterprises are in maintenance or production reduction. - Logic: Spot premiums narrow slightly; supply tightens; demand is in the off - season but with some positive factors. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][14][17] Nickel - View: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term. - Analysis: LME and domestic nickel inventories change; relevant investment and cooperation projects are announced. - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. Industry fundamentals weaken marginally. Inventory accumulates, and prices are under pressure. - Outlook: Short - term wide - range oscillation, mid - long term shorting on rebounds [17][23] Stainless Steel - View: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless steel futures market oscillates. - Analysis: Futures warehouse receipts decrease; spot premiums exist; production data changes. - Logic: Nickel iron and chrome iron prices decline, and steel mills are under pressure. Supply and demand may weaken, and inventory accumulates slightly. - Outlook: Short - term range oscillation [24][25] Tin - View: There is no obvious driving force, and tin prices oscillate. - Analysis: Warehouse receipts and inventory increase; spot prices rise; high prices suppress restocking. - Logic: Supply disturbances in the main production areas subside. Without obvious driving forces, prices oscillate. Supply is tight, but upward elasticity is limited. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to oscillate [25][27] 2.行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part, so it is skipped.