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淡季铁?回升,市场延续窄幅波动
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-20 02:58

Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] - Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all rated as "oscillation" [8][9][11][13][14][16][18] Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro factors have limited impact on the black sector currently. The demand for hot - rolled coils is recovering, while the demand for rebar is seasonally declining. The supply of molten iron is rising from a high level. The overall supply and demand are both strengthening month - on - month, and there is no inventory pressure for now. However, the market's outlook for the future remains pessimistic, worried about the weakening of plate demand, and the resilience of exports needs to be observed. Overall, the driving force is limited [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is judged that the ore price will oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline in production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses for coke enterprises. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material restocking is not high, and the upstream inventory level of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, with no obvious improvement in the inventory structure. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, the price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3] Alloys - The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. On the supply side, some factories have plans to resume production, and a factory in Inner Mongolia has a new production capacity launch plan in the second half of the month. Silicomanganese production is expected to continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the sentiment in the manganese ore market has improved. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate. Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [3][6] Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand is continuing to weaken month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price is falling, and the production and sales are still weak. On the supply side, one production line is planned to be shut down for water - cooling maintenance due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the mid - stream inventory has continued to decline, with repeated mood swings. Attention should be paid to the price cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [6][14] Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the overseas war situation is undetermined. The rise in oil prices has driven the sentiment in the commodity market to improve, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. On the demand side, the demand for the five major steel products has recovered month - on - month this week, with a significant month - on - month increase in the demand for hot - rolled coils and a month - on - month decrease in the demand for rebar. On the supply side, molten iron production is oscillating at a high level, and steel production has increased slightly this week, mainly due to the increase in rebar and wire rod production. This week, the overall supply and demand have both strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether domestic demand can continue to maintain inventory reduction. In the short term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotation rose by 0 - 2 yuan/ton yesterday, and port transactions decreased slightly. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Recently, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel enterprises on the demand side and their maintenance plans. The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The overall contradiction is not obvious. It is judged that the possibility of a significant decline is small, and the ore price is expected to oscillate [8] Scrap Steel - As the building material off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market's expectation of off - season demand is pessimistic and difficult to reverse in the short term, putting pressure on the futures price. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume increased slightly this week. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the overall arrival volume is slightly higher year - on - year. On the demand side, recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure and declining, while the decline of scrap steel is relatively small. Electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours, and the daily consumption has decreased slightly. The molten iron production of blast furnaces has increased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has also increased. In terms of inventory, although the arrival volume increased slightly, the daily consumption increased, and the factory inventory still decreased, with the absolute level at a high level in the same period. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, the price of finished products is under pressure, and electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9] Coke - The supply - demand pattern of coke is slightly loose, and the fourth round of price cuts is expected to start this week. The spot quotation is mainly weakly stable. On the supply side, some coke enterprises have reduced their production levels due to environmental protection, shipment, and loss pressure, and the overall coke production has decreased. However, in the off - season, downstream steel mills have sufficient raw material inventory and low enthusiasm for restocking, so the inventory reduction pressure on coke enterprises still exists. On the demand side, molten iron production is still at a relatively high level, but the terminal steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of a decline in molten iron production in the future. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the support of demand for the coke price. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is weakening, and the upward space for the coke price is limited. The coking coal price is under pressure, the cost support for coke is limited, and the downstream rigid demand tends to decline. The coke price still has downward pressure [9][11] Coking Coal - After the coking coal price dropped to a low level, the recent market trading situation has improved, but the release of downstream restocking demand is limited, and the intermediate links are still mainly in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, affected by factors such as environmental inspections and underground problems, the number of recently shut - down coal mines has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the contraction amplitude of the overall market supply is relatively limited. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and coke enterprises are expected to further reduce their production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, the raw material restocking intensity of coke enterprises is average, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the current supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the de - stocking pressure on mines still exists. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase. The market's supply - demand loose pattern has not been reversed, and the high upstream inventory suppresses the increase of the coking coal price [13] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, for some manganese ore types such as Gabon lumps and Australian lumps, the circulating resources are in short supply, and the arrival cost is inverted. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, the market inquiry activity has increased, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. The transaction price has increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. On the supply side, there are few operating factories in Guizhou. In Yunnan, the electricity cost will drop to about 0.37 yuan in July, and some factories have plans to resume production. In Guilin, Guangxi, the incremental electricity cost will be suspended at the end of the month, and some factories are expected to shut down for maintenance. A new alloy submerged arc furnace has been ignited in Inner Mongolia, with a daily production of about 200 tons. There are still situations of resuming production and adding new production capacity in the north. Constrained by the cost inversion, manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, the black market has entered the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong mentality of pressing prices. The silicomanganese pricing of HBIS Group in June is 5,650 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry price is 5,500 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose. However, factories are facing cost inversion and have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [16] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, the semi - coke market is stable. In Shenmu, the price of small - sized semi - coke is about 575 - 610 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. On the demand side, steel tenders have increased centralized procurement. The tender quantity of HBIS Group for ferrosilicon in June is 2,200 tons, and the tender price is 5,500 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The magnesium metal market is driven by short - term market transactions, and the price is running strongly. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap tends to be filled. The upward space for the futures market is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to steel tender situations and production situations. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [18]