化工日报：下游轮胎开工率环比回升-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU is rated neutral, NR is rated neutral, and BR is rated neutral [4][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rubber prices rebounded mainly due to rainfall interference in major production areas at home and abroad, a slight recovery in raw material prices, and the support of the rubber cost - end, as well as the drive of the rebound of surrounding butadiene rubber. The supply side continued a slight upward trend, and the demand side had no obvious highlights. However, due to the good production profit of tire factories, there was rigid procurement of raw materials, and the operating rate also showed a slight upward trend this week. The expected increase in future supply pressure will limit the upward space [5] - This week, there were no maintenance or restart devices for butadiene rubber, and the supply side was expected to remain stable. The recent production losses have been repaired but are still near the break - even point, and it is expected that there will be no substantial increase in future output for the time being. With the restart of the previous maintenance devices of downstream tire factories, the operating rate of semi - steel tires rebounded month - on - month. Given the current acceptable production profit of tire factories, it is expected that the factories will have a strong willingness to maintain the current operating rate. However, semi - steel tire factories still face the pressure of increasing finished product inventory. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber itself is not prominent. From the perspective of surrounding price differences, the price of natural rubber is still higher than that of synthetic rubber, and the downstream tire replacement demand still exists. Future prices may fluctuate with the price of upstream butadiene raw materials [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures Prices: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,280 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot Prices: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 13,880 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,655 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Production Data: In May 2025, China's output of rubber tire casings was 101.993 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [1] - Passenger Car Market Data: In May this year, the retail volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Differences: On June 19, 2025, the RU basis was - 30 yuan/ton (- 20), the price difference between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 6,922 yuan/ton (- 91.16), the NR basis was 22.00 yuan/ton (- 27.00); the whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the mixed rubber was 13,880 yuan/ton (+ 30), the 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,715 US dollars/ton (- 10), the price difference between the whole latex and the 3L was - 900 yuan/ton (+ 50); the price difference between the mixed rubber and the styrene - butadiene rubber was 1,680 yuan/ton (+ 30) [3] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 68.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.95), the price of Thai glue was 57.75 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the price of Thai cup lump was 48.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.65), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 9.45 Thai baht/kg (- 0.40) [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.39% (+ 2.69%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.54% (+ 1.56%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,278,303 tons (+ 3,253.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 606,975 tons (+ 1,410), the RU futures inventory was 193,070 tons (- 460), and the NR futures inventory was 34,876 tons (+ 13,003) [3] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and Price Differences: On June 19, 2025, the BR basis was - 170 yuan/ton (- 30), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,650 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 745 yuan/ton (+ 0) [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.32% (+ 1.30%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,820 tons (+ 610), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,950 tons (- 700) [3] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. For BR, also maintain a neutral stance [4][5]