新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货市场成交连续性下滑-20250620

Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [6] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [6] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, with energy prices rising and downstream acceptance poor. The alumina market has a continuous decline in spot market transactions, and the supply is expected to be in excess. The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [3][5]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,585 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume was 143,884 lots, an increase of 8,282 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 175,674 lots, a decrease of 22,949 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 449,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 344,950 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - The spot market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East. The supply side has no negative factors in China, but there is a risk of production cuts at the Rio Tinto electrolytic aluminum plant in Australia. The consumption side shows marginal weakness, and the inventory reduction rate slows down. There is a condition for continuous squeezing of positions in China under the current low - inventory situation [3]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,175 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The alumina main contract opened at 2,926 yuan/ton, closed at 2,901 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 250,405 lots, a decrease of 209,382 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 300,995 lots, an increase of 926 lots from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - The spot market transactions have a continuous decline. The electrolytic aluminum plants have stable long - term supply, and the spot procurement frequency is reduced. The alumina plants have no great sales pressure under long - term supply guarantee. The supply has increased with the resumption of production of long - term overhauled capacity and the release of new capacity in North China. The cost of alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and the supply is expected to be in excess [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons, the in - factory inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons, and the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [2]. Market Analysis - It is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. Strategies Unilateral - Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6]. Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [6].