原油日报：霍尔木兹海峡航运扰动仍存，油轮运费上涨-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are highly volatile due to black swan events. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term bearish positions in the medium term [2] Core Viewpoints - Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz shipping route persist, leading to a significant increase in tanker freight rates, which impacts both crude oil and refined oil tanker freight rates [1] - The conflict between Iran and Israel may lead to disruptions in oil supply, causing significant fluctuations in oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On a certain day, the August - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 38 cents to $73.88 per barrel, a 0.52% increase; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose $2.15 to $78.85 per barrel, a 2.80% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.77% at 575 yuan per barrel [1] - The US is considering launching an attack on Iran this weekend, with the Fordo nuclear facility as the main target. Israel expects the US to decide whether to join the attack on Iran within 24 - 48 hours [1] - Since Israel's attack on Iran last week, the charter price of large oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled. The charter price of a very large crude carrier from the Gulf region to China soared from $19,998 per day last Wednesday to $47,609 per day this Wednesday, far exceeding the 12% increase in the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) [1] - Citigroup analysts expect that if the conflict between Iran and Israel escalates and causes a disruption of Iran's 110,000 barrels per day of oil exports, the average price of Brent crude oil may rise by about 15% - 20% from the pre - conflict level of $65 per barrel, reaching $75 - $78 per barrel. If the oil supply disruption reaches about 3 million barrels per day and lasts for several months, the oil price may be pushed up to $90 per barrel. JPMorgan Chase predicts that in the most extreme scenario of a wider - area conflict including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may soar to $120 - $130 per barrel [1] - India's Oil Minister Hardeep Puri said that if the ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, India is preparing to purchase crude oil from outside the Persian Gulf and cut its refined oil exports. India has sufficient crude oil and refined oil inventories and diversified crude oil supply sources [1] - The sharp decline in ballast oil tankers entering the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in tanker freight rates, affecting both crude oil and refined oil tanker freight rates. After the conflict in the Middle East last week, the diesel crack spread strengthened significantly, while the gasoline crack did not strengthen due to the small volume of gasoline exports from the Middle East [1] Risks - Downside risks include the signing of the Iran nuclear deal and macro - level black swan events [3] - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]