中国期货每日简报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 19, equity index futures declined while 30 - Y CGB futures rose; energy & chemical futures increased, while metal futures declined [2][10][12] - The MOFCOM stated that it will continuously accelerate review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations [1][3][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On June 19, equity index futures declined, 30 - Y CGB futures rose, energy & chemical futures increased, and metal futures declined. The top three gainers were Chinese jujube (up 4.9% with 29.6% month - on - month open interest increase), crude oil (up 4.7% with 8.4% month - on - month open interest increase), and LSFO (up 2.7% with 0.5% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (down 4.0% with 0.4% month - on - month open interest decrease), poly - silicon (down 2.5% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and silver (down 1.9% with 13.1% month - on - month open interest decrease) [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Rise - Crude Oil - On June 19, crude oil increased by 4.7% to 570.9 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical uncertainties put oil prices in a high - risk phase, expected to be volatile. API data showed a significant draw in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but gasoline inventories declined more modestly. The IEA monthly report revised down annual demand growth forecast and raised supply expectations. Short - term Middle East geopolitical concerns dominate oil price fluctuations. Attacks on energy infrastructure have occurred but haven't materially affected production or transportation. If geopolitical tensions ease, premiums may decline rapidly, but supply disruption expectations are hard to falsify, leading to more volatile oil prices [15][16][17] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Copper - On June 19, copper decreased by 0.4% to 78310 yuan/ton. Supply constraints and low inventories support the bottom of copper prices, and it may show high - level volatility in the short term. U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with overseas economic weakening risks. Copper concentrate and blister copper processing fees are low, and raw material supplies are tight. Domestic and overseas smelters have cut production. As the consumption off - season approaches, downstream replenishment willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rebound, limiting price upside. The U.S. may increase copper tariffs, causing the COMEX copper price to rise again [22][23][24] 3.1.3.2 Gold - On June 19, gold decreased by 0.5% to 781.24 yuan/gram. The Fed kept rates unchanged in June, indicating two rate cuts this year. It lowered growth forecasts and raised inflation projections, validating stagflation risks. After the meeting, gold had a slight late - session decline but maintained an overall volatile trend. The Israel - Palestine conflict continues but with no significant intensity escalation, and the safe - haven sentiment driving gold is gradually weakening. Since June, gold's correction magnitude has narrowed, and its price center has moved upward, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, with silver following a relatively strong volatile pattern [29][30][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The MOFCOM stated that China is fully prepared for CPTPP accession and will actively align with high - standard international economic and trade rules, steadily expanding institutional opening - up. It also said that it will continuously accelerate the review of rare earths export license applications in accordance with laws and regulations and strengthen communication on export controls with relevant countries [35] 3.2.2 Industry News - As of June 19, the total dividend amount of public funds this year exceeded 107.66 billion yuan, a 47% increase year - on - year. At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the HKEX CEO said there are over 160 companies queuing for IPO in Hong Kong, and the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges should develop in a dislocation manner to jointly promote the construction of a multi - level capital market system [36][37]