化工日报：聚酯负荷坚挺，地缘情绪下价格偏强运行-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent strong trend of crude oil prices supports the prices of PX and PTA, mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The polyester load remains strong despite the production - cut plan [1]. - In the cost - end, the oil price has risen sharply due to the intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran. If the conflict affects energy facilities and the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may rise further; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline [2]. - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined, and the blending demand is limited. The short - process PX plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - With the end of the centralized maintenance period and profit repair, the PX load has increased, and the PXN has declined. The PX load will drop again in July, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand tightness continues [2]. - As PTA devices are gradually restarted, the supply becomes more abundant, and the processing fee is compressed. The PTA price is expected to fluctuate following the cost - end, depending on the development of the Israel - Iran situation [3]. - The polyester start - up rate has slightly declined, terminal orders have weakened again, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to further production - cut actions after the raw material price rebound [3]. - The short - fiber price will remain high due to low inventory and maintenance of processing margins. Traders have sold most of the June contracts in advance and will hold a small amount of inventory later [3]. - The processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, but the inventory pressure has risen again due to high sea - freight in June. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - cut plans and container freight changes [4]. - In the short term, PX, PTA, PF, and PR are bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict. As the devices restart and the polyester load declines, the fundamentals will weaken marginally. Attention should be paid to further production - cut actions and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts [5]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, original - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, and production profits [73][83][85] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and month - to - month spreads [93][95][102]