FICC日报：关注以伊冲突和中国6月LPR报价-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, wait for fundamental verification; allocate more gold on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Focus on the verification of economic facts, the domestic economic foundation needs to be consolidated, and pay attention to the possibility of further fiscal stimulus [1] - Trump's tariff policies are uncertain, and the market is affected by various factors such as economic data and central bank policies [2] - The Israel-Iran conflict is intensifying, which may lead to significant fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, commodities, and financial markets [3] - Commodities are affected by short-term geopolitical conflicts, and different types of commodities have different price trends [4] Market Analysis - In April, domestic data was mixed, with exports slightly exceeding expectations, investment weakening, fiscal revenue and expenditure rising, and consumption under pressure [1] - In May, China's industrial增加值 growth slowed down, consumption strengthened, and investment declined. Exports increased slightly year-on-year, and imports decreased [1] - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism reached a consensus, and China and Russia exchanged views on the Middle East situation [1] - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff order exceeded his authority, but the measure can continue to take effect during the appeal process [2] - The US retail sales in May decreased significantly, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but the outlook is uncertain [2] - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified, with both sides launching attacks on each other, and the international community has called for a ceasefire [3] Commodity Analysis - From the perspective of tariff review, different commodities have different price trends under the influence of tariffs [4] - Energy prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and the medium-term supply is expected to be relatively loose [4] - Gold is recommended to be allocated on dips [4][5] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures, wait for fundamental verification [5] - Allocate more gold on dips [5] To-Do News - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds by 10% from July and increase the issuance of short-term bonds [2][7] - Israel's air defense system may only last about 10 days due to the rapid consumption of interceptor missiles [3][7] - International oil prices have risen due to the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz [3][7] - US officials are preparing to strike Iran in the coming days [3]