甲醇日报：市场担忧MTO装置检修-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Iranian methanol plant shutdowns will affect future Chinese arrivals. Port inventories decreased slightly this week, and the absolute inventory level is seasonally low. After the port basis strengthened rapidly, it declined slightly. The market is worried about the loss and maintenance of port MTO plants that purchase methanol externally. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will be realized. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inland plant inventory also decreased this week, and the inland demand resilience exceeded expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (e.g., methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads (e.g., spreads between methanol 01, 05, and 09 futures contracts) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][30][31] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operation rate (including integrated) are presented [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. are shown [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [44][53] 4. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long for hedging [4]. 5. Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 710 yuan/ton (+8). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2005 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 62 yuan/ton (-19); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2030 yuan/ton (+30). Shandong Linyi is 2388 yuan/ton (+33), with a basis of 45 yuan/ton (+7); Henan is 2280 yuan/ton (+35), with a basis of - 63 yuan/ton (+9); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 88 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 367,350 tons (-11,770), and the Northwest factory inventory is 237,000 tons (-100). The inland factory pending orders are 274,780 tons (-27,310), and the Northwest factory pending orders are 149,500 tons (-17,500) [1] Port - Taicang methanol is 2765 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 222 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 304 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import spread is 29 yuan/ton (+32). Changzhou methanol is 2545 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2640 yuan/ton (+70), with a basis of 97 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Longzhong's total port inventory is 586,400 tons (-65,800), Jiangsu port inventory is 293,500 tons (-18,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 143,500 tons (-12,500), and Guangdong port inventory is 99,500 tons (-24,500). The downstream MTO operation rate is 88.54% (-0.02%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is 210 yuan/ton (+58), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is 128 yuan/ton (+33); Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 478 yuan/ton (-33); Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 305 yuan/ton (+5); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is 225 yuan/ton (+65) [2]