液碱库存环比回落，PVC社库去化放缓

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The supply pressure of PVC remains high due to limited new maintenance, slight decline in overall operating load, and expected new production capacity in June - July. The domestic demand is weak, and the inventory depletion rate is slowing down, with the possibility of inventory accumulation in the future. The cost support is not strong, and the price is driven up by market sentiment. It is recommended to take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term [3][4]. - Caustic Soda: The overall operating rate of caustic soda is at a high level, and the supply pressure will increase with expected new production capacity in June - July. The demand from the alumina sector has a slight recovery, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The short - term price follows the basis repair logic, but the inventory is high, and the comprehensive profit has room for compression. A cautious and bearish view is recommended [3][4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4900 yuan/ton (+1), the East China basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+9), and the South China basis is - 50 yuan/ton (-11) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4770 yuan/ton (+10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit is - 8.3 US dollars/ton (-4.6) [1]. - PVC inventory and operating rate: The in - factory inventory is 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social inventory is 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 76.74% (-0.09%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2288 yuan/ton (-10), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 306 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1380 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 900.3 yuan/ton (+80.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 267.53 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1284.03 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operating rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 36.65 tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.85 tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operating rate is 81.20% (+0.30%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operating rate: The alumina operating rate is 80.87% (+0.52%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 80.80% (+0.24%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Limited new maintenance, slightly lower overall operating load, high supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Weak domestic demand, slow inventory depletion rate, and possible inventory accumulation in the future [3]. - Cost: Weak cost support [3]. - Price: Driven up by market sentiment [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: High overall operating rate, increasing supply pressure with expected new production capacity in June - July [3]. - Demand side: Slight recovery in alumina demand, weak non - aluminum demand, and continuous negative feedback from the demand side [3]. - Price: Short - term basis repair logic, but high inventory and lack of upward driving force [3]. Strategy - PVC: Take a neutral view, with a bearish outlook in the medium - long term. Pay attention to export dynamics and new production progress [4]. - Caustic Soda: Take a cautious and bearish view, as the inventory is high and the comprehensive profit has room for compression [4].