化工日报：中东地缘风险尚未缓解，EG偏强运行-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not eased, and EG is operating strongly. The recent Israel-Iran conflict has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, strongly pushing up the cost of ethylene glycol. The fire incident of three cruise ships in the Oman Bay and the expansion of the shutdown of Iranian EG plants have also contributed to the strong performance of the EG market [1]. - In terms of production profit, the production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. - Regarding inventory, different data sources show a decline in MEG inventory in the East China main port. The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2]. - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the domestic supply side will gradually resume in June, with a low overall load, and the supply - demand structure will still show a benign inventory reduction throughout the month. However, the cancellation and outflow of warehouse receipts will supplement the available spot in the market. Overseas supply is affected by the shutdown of Iranian plants due to geopolitical conflicts. On the demand side, the new maintenance plan of bottle - chip factories weakens the demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials and the restart progress of large - scale EG plants [2]. - The trading strategy suggests a short - term long position, focusing on the further evolution of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract yesterday was 4,539 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,547 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 80 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$39/ton (up $4/ton from the previous period), and that of coal - made syngas - made EG was 227 yuan/ton (up 77 yuan/ton from the previous period) [1]. International Price Difference - Not provided in the content Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The bottle - chip factories have new maintenance plans, resulting in a weak demand expectation. Future attention should be paid to the polyester production - reduction actions after the significant rebound of raw materials [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory in the East China main port was 616,000 tons (down 18,000 tons from the previous period); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 537,000 tons (down 27,000 tons from the previous period). The actual arrivals at the main port last week totaled 108,000 tons, with a slight increase in inventory. This week, the planned arrivals at the East China main port total 100,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the change in the arrival rhythm due to the shutdown of Iranian plants [2].