黑色建材日报：成材持续去库，钢价震荡运行-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant currently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1]. - Iron ore prices are fluctuating. The supply of iron ore is generally recovering, and its consumption maintains resilience. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and future attention should be paid to the iron water output and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal and coke prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the medium - and long - term supply - loose pattern has not changed significantly [6]. - The supply - demand structure of thermal coal has improved, and the coal price has rebounded slightly. With the approaching of the thermal coal consumption peak season, the coal price is expected to continue to rise, and the medium - and long - term supply pattern remains balanced [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 2986 yuan/ton and 3103 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar production has increased, while inventory and demand have slightly decreased. Hot - rolled coil production and consumption have increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The daily national building materials trading volume is 9.01 million tons. The off - season weak demand suppresses rebar prices, while hot - rolled coils show strong resilience, and short - term exports remain high [1]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to maintain a fluctuating outlook, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore fluctuates. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 242.18 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.57 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate is 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - Strategy: The unilateral strategy is to maintain a fluctuating outlook, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The futures prices of coke and coking coal fluctuate within a range. Coke production is restricted, and inventory has decreased significantly. Coking coal supply has tightened, and the inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased. Downstream coking enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the medium - and long - term supply - loose pattern remains unchanged [6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [7]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The expected output at the mine mouth is shrinking, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price of low - calorie coal has increased significantly, and the price of high - calorie imported coal is firm. With the approaching of the thermal coal consumption peak season, the coal price is expected to rebound, and the medium - and long - term supply pattern remains balanced [7]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [8].