新能源及有色金属日报：空单主动减仓，沪镍盘面小幅反弹-20250620

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, the refined nickel market is in a pattern of oversupply with relatively sluggish spot trading. The short - term may end the weak oscillation stage, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies [2][3] - For the stainless steel variety, the short - term may find a phased low around 12400, and the mid - to long - term also maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 118,550 yuan/ton and closed at 118,890 yuan/ton, a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 88,477 lots, and the open interest was 75,358 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 oscillated upwards, ending a five - day losing streak. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous trading day. The green column area of the daily MACD did not continue to expand. There was a top - divergence phenomenon at around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The spot market prices of mainstream brands increased, and the premium was relatively stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,765 (- 374.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 203,598 (- 522) tons [2] - Strategy - The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. Short - term operations are advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies. The strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,490 yuan/ton and closed at 12,575 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 121,673 lots, and the open interest was 179,438 lots [3] - The main contract oscillated upwards, closing with a positive line. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The green column area of the daily MACD did not expand further and was close to turning red. The spot market prices in Foshan were mostly flat compared to the previous trading day, and the market confidence had not recovered. The nickel - iron price was expected to be weak in the short term. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,850 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 315 - 615 yuan/ton [4] - Strategy - The 60 - minute line of the stainless steel main contract formed a double - bottom structure at 12,440. Wait for a rebound to break through the previous high of 12,635. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks, and the mid - to long - term maintains the idea of selling hedging on rallies. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]