2025年电力行业半年度行情展望：供需宽松叠加改革提速，电价延续承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the power market supply - demand pattern was marginally loose, and prices declined. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, electricity prices will still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand looseness, falling primary energy prices, accelerated power spot market construction, and the full - scale participation of new energy in market transactions [68][69]. - In different regional power spot markets that have been officially launched, electricity prices in various regions are expected to show different degrees of decline, with varying influencing factors and characteristics in each region [70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Power Market in the First Half of 2025 1.1 Power Supply - From January to April 2025, the newly installed power generation capacity reached 141 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 58.2%. Solar energy had the largest increase, with new capacity of 105 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 74.6%. Wind and thermal power also showed rapid growth, while hydropower slightly decreased, and nuclear power had no new installations [6]. - The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to April 2025 were 1008 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 103 hours. The growth rate of power generation significantly slowed down. The proportion of thermal power generation continued to decline, while other power sources increased to varying degrees [8]. 1.2 Power Demand - From January to April 2025, the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society was 3156.6 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Although the electricity consumption growth rate recovered month by month, it was still relatively low compared to the high - base growth last year. The main reasons included the leap - year effect, warm - winter weather, industrial structure adjustment, and weak external demand [15]. 1.3 Power Price - From January to May 2025, the overall pattern of industrial and commercial agency power purchase prices across the country was "more declines than increases." As of May, the average price was 387.3 yuan per megawatt - hour, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. There was a further differentiation in prices among regions [22]. 2. Outlook for the Power Market in the Second Half of 2025 2.1 Macro Outlook - Supply - side: The newly installed power generation capacity is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. It is estimated that the total power generation in 2025 will reach 11.6 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [24]. - Demand - side: The GDP elasticity coefficient of power consumption in 2025 is expected to drop to around the 2022 - 2023 level. The total national electricity consumption is expected to be 10.4 trillion kilowatt - hours, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 5.9% [25]. - Supply - demand relationship: The calculated power generation - to - consumption ratio is only 89.6%, indicating that the power market supply - demand is becoming looser [28]. - Cost factor: The prices of primary energy such as thermal coal and natural gas have continued to decline, weakening the cost support for electricity prices [30]. - Market mechanism factor: The construction of the power spot market has accelerated, and new energy has fully participated in market transactions, both of which will put downward pressure on electricity prices [32][37]. 2.2 Outlook for Electricity Prices in Spot Markets that have been Officially Launched - Guangdong: The power market is generally in a state of loose supply - demand. Electricity prices are expected to continue the year - on - year decline trend, but the construction of the southern regional power market may cause some disturbances [38][50]. - Shanxi: Electricity prices are expected to gradually approach the cost of coal - fired power and continue to decline under the background of the downward cycle of coal - fired power [51]. - Shandong: With the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy and limited demand growth, the spot electricity price still has room to decline [55]. - Gansu: The proportion of new energy is high, and electricity prices will face long - term downward pressure. The high volatility of electricity prices is expected to continue due to the high sensitivity to climate conditions [60][63]. - Western Inner Mongolia: The proportion of new energy power is expected to increase, and the willingness of thermal power to bid high is weak. The spot price is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is relatively limited as the current price is already at a low level [64][67]. 3. Conclusion - In the first half of 2025, the power market supply - demand was marginally loose, and prices declined. In the second half of the year, electricity prices will still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Different regions will have different trends in electricity prices [68][69][70].