Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of the year, nickel and stainless steel prices may face pressure and fluctuate at low levels, with the center of the fluctuation likely to move down compared to the first half. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton, and for stainless steel, it is 12,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton [2]. - The core logic for the nickel market in the first half of the year was the tight supply of nickel ore, but market concerns may become dull in the second half. The supply elasticity of refined nickel may limit the upside space, and the downstream demand for nickel is mediocre, so the center of the nickel price fluctuation may move down [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Nickel and Stainless Steel Trends 1.1 Shanghai Nickel Market Review - From January to February 2025, nickel prices fluctuated in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Despite a slight increase in inventory at the smelting end, it was lower than expected. High ore prices provided cost support for pyrometallurgy, and nickel prices oscillated in a multi - empty game [5]. - From March to April 2025, price volatility increased significantly. Nickel prices first rose and then fell, fluctuating in the range of 115,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. Intensified ore - end contradictions led to a significant increase in nickel ore premiums, pushing up pyrometallurgical smelting costs. However, concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the release of supply elasticity in Indonesia limited the upside of refined nickel prices [6]. - From May to June 2025, nickel prices returned to range - bound fluctuations, but the center of the fluctuation gradually moved down, in the range of about 118,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. The tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore continued, but market concerns about the ore end eased. Negative feedback from stainless steel production cuts also limited the upside of nickel prices [7]. 1.2 Stainless Steel Market Review - From January to March 2025, steel prices oscillated upward due to the combined effect of rising costs and peak - season expectations. The cost of stainless steel increased, and the price reached 13,800 yuan/ton, with a maximum cumulative increase of 8% [14]. - From April to May 2025, steel prices mainly followed overseas tariff policies. Trump's tariff policies led to a sharp decline in market risk appetite, and steel prices dropped. After the relaxation of tariffs, steel prices rose to 13,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 3% [14]. - In early June 2025, the center of steel price fluctuations moved down. The supply elasticity of ferronickel was released, and stainless steel entered a negative - feedback logic, with costs decreasing and inventory digestion slow [15]. 2. Supply 2.1 Front - end Smelting - Short - term Supply: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian hydrometallurgical intermediate products was 184,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 73,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 39,000 tons. The cumulative output of pyrometallurgical intermediate products was 114,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 16,000 tons. It is expected that the actual supply of Indonesian MHP in 2025 may increase by 44% (150,000 tons) year - on - year to 480,000 tons, while the actual supply of nickel matte may maintain a negative growth rate [20][21][25]. - Long - term Consideration: Hydrometallurgy has cost advantages, but it is difficult for it to make deep concessions. Although the profits of hydrometallurgical projects are considerable, the initial investment is high, and the pay - back period is long. A sharp decline in nickel prices may impact future hydrometallurgical supply expectations [32][36]. 2.2 Back - end Smelting - The supply of back - end smelting, including refined nickel and nickel sulfate, is in an over - supply situation. The supply increment of refined nickel is mainly in China. It is expected that the global refined nickel supply will increase by 9% (90,000 tons) year - on - year to 1.11 million tons in 2025. The global supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year to 420,000 tons [40][41][55]. 2.3 Ferronickel and Stainless Steel - Ferronickel: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian ferronickel was 704,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 104,000 tons), and that of Chinese ferronickel was 131,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 5,000 tons). It is expected that the global ferronickel supply will increase by 4.8% (100,000 tons) year - on - year to 2.17 million tons in 2025 [62][65]. - Stainless Steel: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Chinese stainless steel was 16.1 million tons (year - on - year increase of 780,000 tons), and that of Indonesian stainless steel was 2.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 9,000 tons). Supply elasticity limits the profit range, and stainless steel valuation may be anchored to costs. It is expected that in 2025, stainless steel production and imports will change by +4% and - 23% year - on - year to 39.85 million tons and 1.45 million tons respectively, with a total supply growth rate of about 2.9% [75][78][80]. 2.4 Nickel Ore - In the short term, the tight supply of nickel ore is still a reality, but this supporting logic may become dull in the second half of the year. Concerns about Philippine policies have eased, and rainfall disturbances are expected to subside. Market concerns about Indonesian nickel ore may also ease in the second half of the year [87][88][91].
2025年镍与不锈钢期货半年度行情展望:冶炼逻辑限制弹性,矿端节奏决定方向
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-20 05:25