2025年储能市场半年度行情展望：内需承压外需向上，政策预期扰动市场

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the global energy storage market continued its high - growth trend, but there were significant differences among regions. China had remarkable performance, with new energy storage installations from January to May reaching 18.62GW/47.57GWh, a year - on - year increase of 112%. The US market maintained strong growth, with new installations of 2346MW, a year - on - year increase of 59%. The European market was highly differentiated, with Germany's new installations from January to May at 1278MW/2038MWh, a year - on - year decrease of 16%, Italy's Q1 new installations at 266MW/497MWh, a year - on - year decrease of 46%, and the UK's Q1 new installations at 419MW/959MWh, a year - on - year increase of 109% [2][79]. - The global new energy storage installation forecast for 2025 was slightly adjusted downward, with an expected increase of 228.4GWh, a year - on - year growth of 21%. Although lower than the previous forecast, the overall growth rate remained at a high level [3][79]. - In the domestic market, the cancellation of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy and the end of the "531" rush - to - install wave were expected to suppress the installation rhythm in the second half of the year. However, with sufficient中标 project reserves, some projects could continue to be promoted in the form of independent energy storage, and the risk of a significant decline was relatively controllable. The domestic new energy storage installations for the whole year of 2025 were expected to reach 107.4GWh, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.2%, including 97.2GWh for large - scale front - of - the - meter energy storage and 10.2GWh for behind - the - meter energy storage [3][79]. - The overseas energy storage market remained highly prosperous, with strong growth in the US, Europe, and emerging markets. In the US, the impact of policy disturbances was relatively small, the project reserve continued to increase, and the expected improvement in the project completion rate was anticipated. The new installations for the whole year of 2025 were expected to reach 48.9GWh, a year - on - year increase of 32%, including 43.6GWh for front - of - the - meter energy storage and 5.4GWh for behind - the - meter energy storage. In Europe, driven by continuous energy transformation, large - scale energy storage installations continued to grow, and the decline in household energy storage was expected to narrow. The new installations for the whole year were expected to reach 29.8GWh, a year - on - year increase of 36%, including 16.3GWh for large - scale front - of - the - meter energy storage and 13.4GWh for behind - the - meter energy storage. In emerging markets, project reserves in Chile, Australia, the Middle East, etc., continued to expand, large - scale projects advanced steadily, and India had significant growth potential driven by the mandatory energy storage allocation policy. The new installations for the whole year were expected to reach 42.3GWh, a year - on - year increase of 83% [4][80]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 2025 First - Half Energy Storage Market Review: Continued High Prosperity with Regional Differences 3.1.1 China: Surge in "531" Rush - to - Install Demand and Continued Price Decline - From January to May 2025, domestic new energy storage installations reached 18.62GW/47.57GWh, with a capacity scale increasing by 112.9% year - on - year. The main driver was the rush - to - install wave caused by the centralized grid - connection of new energy in May, which released energy storage demand. In May alone, new installations were as high as 8.99GW/23.13GWh, a year - on - year surge of 412.9%. The grid - side was the main source of growth [8]. - Lithium iron phosphate batteries still dominated the energy storage market. In Q1 2025, new lithium - battery energy storage installations reached 5.2GW/12.6GWh, with a power proportion of 96.5%. Other new energy storage technologies accounted for less than 1% [10]. - The overall utilization efficiency of energy storage in Q1 2025 significantly rebounded. The average daily utilization hours of energy storage reached 2.82 hours, an increase of 0.34 hours year - on - year; the average daily equivalent charge - discharge times were 0.67 times, an increase of 0.04 times year - on - year; the average utilization rate index reached 47%, a 6 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [10]. - The price of energy storage systems continued to fall. By May 2025, the price of 2 - hour energy storage systems dropped to 0.55 yuan/Wh, a record low, with an annual decline of 21%; the price of 2 - hour energy storage EPC dropped to 0.946 yuan/Wh, a cumulative annual decline of 24% [12]. 3.1.2 US: Monthly Improvement in Completion Rate and Continued High - Growth Year - on - Year - According to EIA data, from January to March 2025, new front - of - the - meter large - scale energy storage installations in the US reached 2346MW, a year - on - year increase of 59%. The core driver of this rapid growth was the continuous improvement in project completion rate, which reached 48% in Q1 and showed a monthly upward trend, with the single - month completion rate in March rising to 53%, compared with only 29% in the same period of 2024 [16]. - In terms of behind - the - meter energy storage, in 2024, new household energy storage installations in the US reached 797MW/3028MWh, a year - on - year increase of 64%; new commercial and industrial energy storage installations reached 120MW/334MWh, a year - on - year increase of 11% [18]. 3.1.3 Europe: Decline in Installations in Germany and Italy, and Explosive Growth in the UK - In the first half of the year, Germany's energy storage installations declined year - on - year, mainly due to the weakness of household energy storage, while large - scale energy storage performed well. From January to May 2025, new energy storage installations in Germany were 1278MW/2038MWh, a year - on - year decrease of 16%. New household energy storage installations were 995MW/1501MWh, a significant year - on - year decrease of 28%, but the recent decline in the number of BAFA building energy subsidy applications had narrowed. New commercial and industrial energy storage installations were 43MW/91MWh, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. New front - of - the - meter large - scale energy storage installations reached 240MW/446MWh, a significant year - on - year increase of 97% [22]. - According to the Italian Photovoltaic Association, in Q1 2025, new energy storage installations in Italy were 266MW/497MWh, a year - on - year decrease of 46.4%. The decline was mainly due to insufficient project reserves in the large - scale energy storage capacity market and the continuous pressure on household energy storage due to subsidy withdrawal. In contrast, the UK's energy storage installations maintained strong growth. In Q1 2025, new installations reached 419MW/959MWh, a year - on - year increase of 109%, driven by the gradual grid - connection of previously postponed large - scale energy storage projects [24]. 3.2 2025 Second - Half Energy Storage Market Outlook: Short - Term Domestic Demand Weakness, with Overseas Demand Supporting Industry Prosperity 3.2.1 China: Policy Uncertainty, with New Installations Revised Down to 107.4GWh - The cancellation of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy had an impact on the large - scale energy storage market. Although the cancellation might lead to a decline in energy storage penetration, the decline was expected to be limited in the short term due to the support of large - scale previously won projects. The policy implementation rhythm was inconsistent across regions, and some areas still retained mandatory energy storage requirements in local policies, so the possibility of a cliff - like decline in energy storage installations in 2025 was low [26][27][28]. - After the cancellation of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy, some power - side energy storage projects might transform into independent energy storage, and the average charge - discharge time of front - of - the - meter energy storage was expected to drop to 2.3 hours in 2025. The front - of - the - meter large - scale energy storage installation forecast for 2025 was adjusted to 42GW/97GWh, with the power scale increasing by 9.5% year - on - year and the capacity scale decreasing by 1.8% year - on - year [33]. - In the long term, the domestic large - scale energy storage market was still promising, with the driving logic shifting from policy - oriented to profitability - driven. The energy storage arbitrage space was expected to expand, and the power spot market construction was advancing rapidly, which would open up access channels for independent energy storage arbitrage [34][35]. - Affected by policy uncertainty, the overall growth rate of behind - the - meter energy storage might be lower than expected. The new installation scale in 2025 was expected to be about 4.6GW/10GWh, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Policy changes and price declines had a negative impact on the profitability and installation rhythm of behind - the - meter energy storage [38][39]. - The annual energy storage installation rhythm in 2025 was expected to be "high in the first half and low in the second half." The energy storage installation volume in Q4 was expected to decline by about 36% year - on - year, while the installation performance in the first half, especially Q2, was stronger, with an expected year - on - year growth rate of 62% [42]. 3.2.2 US: High - Level Project Planning Scale, with Limited Impact of Tariffs on Terminal Installations - In 2025, the new energy storage installations in the US were expected to reach 15.6GW/48.9GWh, a year - on - year increase of 32%, including 13.4GW/43.6GWh for front - of - the - meter large - scale energy storage, 0.3GW/0.9GWh for commercial and industrial energy storage (a year - on - year increase of 143%), and 1.9GW/4.5GWh for household energy storage (a year - on - year increase of 47%) [43]. - The overall energy storage project planning scale in the US remained stable, and the project completion rate was expected to improve. Although there were uncertainties in policies, the risk of project cancellation was mainly expected to be released in 2026 [44]. - For behind - the - meter energy storage, the growth of commercial and industrial energy storage was limited by policy uncertainty, while the long - term growth space of household energy storage was restricted by the net metering policy [46]. - The impact of tariff policies on terminal energy storage installations in the US was relatively limited. The previous "rush - to - export" effect had buffered the impact, and the release of domestic production capacity and the export space of Chinese energy storage batteries also reduced the risk of supply shortages [47][48]. 3.2.3 Europe: Continued Explosion of Large - Scale Energy Storage, with Narrowed Decline in Behind - the - Meter Energy Storage - Driven by the rapid development of front - of - the - meter large - scale energy storage, the European energy storage market was on an upward trend. The new energy storage installations in 2025 were expected to reach 30GWh, a year - on - year increase of 36%, including 16GWh for front - of - the - meter energy storage (an 86% year - on - year increase), 4GWh for commercial and industrial energy storage (a 67% year - on - year increase), and 10GWh for household energy storage (a 9% year - on - year decrease) [52]. - The core driving force for the growth of front - of - the - meter large - scale energy storage in Europe was the increasing demand for grid regulation due to the continuous penetration of renewable energy. Governments in various countries introduced a series of subsidy policies to support the development of large - scale energy storage [52][54]. - For behind - the - meter energy storage, the demand for household energy storage remained weak, but the year - on - year decline was expected to narrow. Commercial and industrial energy storage was expected to achieve high growth, but was restricted by factors such as a single profit model and insufficient government subsidies [57][58]. - In Germany, the energy storage market showed structural differentiation, with large - scale energy storage expected to accelerate and household energy storage remaining sluggish. In Italy, the new energy storage installations were expected to show a "slow - start and then - accelerate" trend. In the UK, large - scale energy storage dominated, and the installations were expected to maintain steady growth, with the growth rate expected to accelerate in 2026 [60][61][63]. 3.2.4 Emerging Countries: Steady Progress of Large - Scale Projects, with Diverse Demand - Chile: Although the energy storage project operation rhythm was slow in the first half of the year, some projects were successfully put into operation as expected. The new energy storage installation capacity for the whole year was expected to reach 4.3GWh, a year - on - year increase of 83%. The project planning was active, and many domestic enterprises had made breakthroughs in the Chilean market [68]. - Middle East: Major energy storage projects were advancing steadily, and the annual installation scale was expected to remain at around 20GWh. Driven by energy - transformation goals, many large - scale projects were expected to be implemented [70][71]. - Australia: Although the revenue of large - scale energy storage decreased in 2025, the investment in energy storage projects in Q1 remained high. Affected by the approaching general election, the new installation scale in Q1 was relatively limited, but the construction progress was expected to accelerate after the election, and the new installation for the whole year was expected to be 10GWh [73]. - India: In February 2025, India introduced a mandatory energy storage allocation policy, which was expected to start contributing significant increments from 2026. The new photovoltaic installations in 2026 might exceed 40GW, driving the energy storage demand to reach 8GWh [78].