Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with potential for policy - related disturbances. For trading, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. The polysilicon futures market is expected to have wide - range oscillations, and a range - bound operation is also recommended [3][7] Market Analysis and Strategy for Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly oscillating. The main contract 2509 opened at 7385 yuan/ton and closed at 7470 yuan/ton, a change of 35 yuan/ton (0.47%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 310357 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 55179 lots, a decrease of 441 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1] - On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 55.9 tons, a decrease of 1.3 tons from the previous week. The inventory in social general warehouses was 13.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons, and that in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons [1] - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 10200 - 10800 yuan/ton, with an average price significantly lower than the previous week. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC quoted price was 10400 - 10800 yuan/ton. Due to the weakening cost support and sluggish off - season demand, DMC enterprises started to cut prices to sell goods, and downstream enterprises' purchases increased [2] Strategy - In the recent days, the industrial silicon futures market has been oscillating. Although the statistical inventory has slightly decreased, the total inventory is still expected to slightly increase. The inventory structure has changed. There is a possibility of increased production of polysilicon, but the supply of industrial silicon is also expected to increase. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances [3] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended, and upstream producers are advised to sell and hedge at high prices. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Market Analysis and Strategy for Polysilicon Market Analysis - On June 19, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 33000 yuan/ton and closing at 32720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.55% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 27613 lots (30435 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 57380 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory slightly increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 26.20, a decrease of 4.70% compared to the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a decrease of 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500.00 tons, an increase of 2.94%, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.90GW, a decrease of 1.53% [5] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.90 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.26 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.05 yuan/piece [5] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6] Strategy - In the recent two days, the near - month contracts of polysilicon futures have significantly declined, while the far - month contracts have been relatively strong. On one hand, it is affected by the increased supply and weak consumption of near - month contracts. On the other hand, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting, there will be greater - scale production cuts in the third quarter, and the start - up ratio is expected to decrease by 10% - 15%. Policies to control "below - cost sales" have been implemented. The market is expected to oscillate in a wide range [7] - For trading strategies, a range - bound operation is recommended. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]
新能源及有色金属日报：统计库存去化，工业硅盘面企稳震荡运行-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-20 05:18