Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector is performing well, with the operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reaching 80 - 100% due to the support of demands from mobile base stations and data centers. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price should be treated with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 19, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -31.32 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to -25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 75 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,225 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,925 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,967 lots, an increase of 1,410 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,907 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots. During the day, the price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,965 yuan/ton and the lowest point at 16,760 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On June 19, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of June 19, the LME lead inventory was 287,425 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - Treat the lead price with a volatile perspective, and the Pb2507 contract is expected to trade between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4]
新能源及有色金属日报：下游维持刚需采购，铅价持续震荡-20250620
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-20 05:30