新能源及有色金属日报：持货商出货积极，铜价维持震荡格局-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [5] Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and there is significant uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous downward pressure on the Fed's interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,310 yuan/ton, a 0.70% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,160 yuan/ton and closed at 78,250 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders started to lower the premium. The mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, then were pressed to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat - copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton with tight supply. Good - quality copper was quoted at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream purchases, and the market's purchase and sales sentiment indices increased. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] Important Information - Macro and Geopolitical: The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4.25% with increasing internal divergence. Traders expect a 50 - basis - point rate cut this year. Geopolitically, Israel aims to eliminate Khamenei, while the White House says Trump has a "great" chance of negotiating with Iran and will decide on attacking Iran in two weeks. Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and called for a 250 - basis - point rate cut. Domestically, three departments held a video conference on new - energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution - style" competition [3] - Mine End: Troilus Gold reached an agreement with Germany's Aurubis AG for the concentrate purchase of its Quebec copper - gold project. The final agreement is expected to be signed simultaneously with the $7 - billion overall debt - financing plan announced in March 2025. The project was an old mine that produced nearly 70,000 tons of copper from 1996 - 2010. It is estimated to produce an average of 135.4 million pounds of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [3] - Smelting and Import: The Kutch copper smelter in Gujarat with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons started processing ore this week after multiple delays due to raw - material shortages. It aims to reach full - capacity production as soon as possible, which may take 18 months, and a full - capacity operation would require about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrate supply per year [4] - Consumption: In May 2025, China's copper product output was 2.096 million tons, a slight increase from April and a multi - year high for the same period. From January to May, the output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase. In the off - season, the operating rates of copper tubes and rods declined, but cables performed well [4] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,198 tons to 44,816 tons. On June 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.459 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5]