基于24年年报和25年一季报的研究：可转债信用风险观察

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of the convertible bond market, issuer financial performance, and credit risk based on the 2024 annual reports and Q1 2025 reports. With convertible bonds entering the peak redemption and repayment period in 2025, the importance of credit risk research has become prominent. Some industries face challenges such as price pressure, demand shortfalls, and supply - demand mismatches, leading to increased operating pressure, weakened profitability, and cash flow issues for some issuers, thus highlighting the need to focus on their credit risks [1][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Convertible Bond Market Development Overview - Issuance and Stock Situation: In 2024, China's convertible bond issuance scale decreased year - on - year, with a total issuance of 38.757 billion yuan, a 72.78% decline. From January to May 2025, the issuance scale increased compared to the same period in 2024, reaching 25.923 billion yuan, a 156.40% increase. As of June 13, 2025, there were 484 outstanding convertible bonds, with a balance of 668.343 billion yuan. Private enterprises were the main issuers, with 383 convertible bonds and a balance of 388.428 billion yuan. Convertible bonds with lower credit ratings accounted for a relatively high proportion, indicating that some issuers had relatively weak creditworthiness [1][11][12]. - Importance of Convertible Bond Credit Risk Research: In recent years, the number of convertible bond credit risk events has increased. Since 2023, credit risk events have occurred in bonds such as Soute Convertible Bond, Hongda Convertible Bond, etc. With convertible bonds entering the peak redemption and repayment period in 2025, the importance of credit risk research has become more prominent [20]. 3.2 Financial Performance of Convertible Bond Issuers - Profitability: In 2024, the overall operating income and net profit of convertible bond issuers decreased year - on - year, but showed improvement in Q1 2025. In 2024, industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery turned from losses to profits, while industries like power equipment and building materials saw significant net profit declines. In Q1 2025, industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery continued to perform well, but industries like power equipment and coal had significant net profit declines [23][29]. - Cash Flow: In 2024, the overall operating net cash flow of convertible bond issuers decreased year - on - year. Industries such as communication, media, and construction decoration saw significant improvements, while industries like national defense and military industry and power equipment weakened significantly. In Q1 2025, the net outflow of operating cash flow decreased. In 2024, the overall net outflow of investment cash flow decreased, and the net inflow of financing cash flow decreased year - on - year. Industries such as power equipment, electronics, and basic chemicals had large net inflows of financing cash flow and were more dependent on external financing [2][3][49]. - Debt Burden and Solvency: At the end of 2024, the overall asset - liability ratio of issuers was 60.93%, an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the end of 2023. The total debt scale increased, and the short - term debt ratio decreased compared to the end of 2023. The overall solvency weakened at the end of 2024 [3]. 3.3 Summary of the Current Credit Risk Status of Outstanding Convertible Bonds - Some industries, including coal, steel, construction materials, and power equipment, face challenges such as price pressure, demand shortfalls, and supply - demand mismatches. Some issuers in these industries have increased operating pressure, weakened profitability, cash flow problems, increased debt burdens, and weakened solvency, requiring close attention to their credit risks [4][63][66].