光大期货黑色商品日报（2025年6月20日）-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation, with low real - time demand in the off - season, but low production and continued inventory decline [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend, with a decrease in global shipments and an increase in demand and inventory changes [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with some coal mines suspending production, cautious procurement by downstream enterprises, and a decline in market sentiment [1]. - The coke market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with low production enthusiasm of coke enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The ferromanganese - silicon market is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations, with no strong fundamental drivers and weak cost support [1][3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited supply - demand drivers and stable raw material prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2986 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices and low transactions. This week, the national rebar production increased by 4.61 tons week - on - week to 212.18 tons, and inventories continued to decline. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 rose to 698 yuan/ton, with an increase in port spot prices. Global shipments decreased, while demand and some inventories increased. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 790.5 yuan/ton. Some coal mines suspended production, downstream procurement was cautious, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1374 yuan/ton, with a decline in spot prices. Coke enterprises had low production enthusiasm and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Ferromanganese - Silicon: The ferromanganese - silicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract at 5584 yuan/ton. The steel tender price was 5650 yuan/ton, with some new production and production cuts. It is expected to remain in low - level fluctuations [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price trended stronger, with the main contract at 5310 yuan/ton. Production increased week - on - week, demand was weak, and raw material prices were stable. It is expected to fluctuate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon were provided, along with their week - on - week changes [4]. - Profit data such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, as well as cross - variety spreads like coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., were presented, along with their week - on - week changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: Included price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: Included basis trend charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [19][20][23][25]. - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Included spread trend charts of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese - silicon, and ferrosilicon [27][29][31][33][35][36][39]. - 3.3.4 Cross - variety Contract Spreads: Included spread trend charts of main contracts such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - 3.3.5 Rebar Profit: Included profit trend charts of rebar's main contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Introduced members of the black research team including Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, along with their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [52][53].