海通证券晨报-20250620

Group 1: Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations. However, inflationary concerns have intensified, leading to downward revisions in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, alongside an increase in unemployment rate predictions and price index forecasts [2][10][11] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has not yet fully materialized, indicating significant uncertainty regarding future inflation trends. Tariff measures require time to affect consumer prices, and geopolitical issues in the Middle East may further exacerbate inflation [2][10][11] - The market is currently exhibiting signs of stagflation trading, with expectations of a potential recovery trading phase in the latter half of the year as tax reduction measures and debt ceiling increases are implemented [3][12] Group 2: Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, signaling an acceleration in the industrialization of nuclear fusion. The company is a leading producer of high-temperature superconducting materials, holding over 80% of the domestic market share for second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes [5][20][22] - The global market for high-temperature superconducting materials is projected to grow from 790 million yuan in 2024 to over 10.5 billion yuan by 2030, driven by applications in controllable nuclear fusion and other downstream industries [6][22][23] - Shanghai Superconductor's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 240 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 187.4%. The company is anticipated to achieve profitability in 2024 after previous losses [6][22][23] Group 3: Automotive Industry - The heavy truck market in China is showing signs of recovery, with a projected 16% year-on-year increase in sales to 1.06 million units in 2025, driven by the implementation of the vehicle replacement policy [17][18] - In May 2025, domestic heavy truck sales reached 89,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The market is expected to benefit from the ongoing vehicle replacement initiatives [18][19] Group 4: Chemical Industry - The demand for photoinitiators is increasing due to their expanding application scenarios, leading to rising product prices. Key companies in this sector include Jiuri New Materials, Yangfan New Materials, and Qiangli New Materials [34][35] - The photoinitiator market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by environmental regulations and the emergence of new applications such as 3D printing [35]