海外札记20250617：伊以冲突地缘风险交易的前景

Geopolitical Risk and Market Reactions - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has shifted market focus from tariffs to geopolitical risks, leading to increased trading volatility and risk premiums[6] - During the week of June 7-14, WTI crude oil prices surged by 20%, reaching over $70 per barrel, effectively recovering from earlier declines[11] - The conflict has heightened inflation concerns, as rising oil prices could lead to further declines in risk assets like stocks and bonds if the trend continues[11] Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, heightened risk aversion is expected as the conflict escalates, with potential for further increases in risk premiums[16] - The current geopolitical situation is unlikely to reverse macroeconomic trends decisively, as the intensity of the Israel-Iran conflict is perceived to be lower than that of the Russia-Ukraine conflict[18] - Market reactions to geopolitical events often lead to overreactions, with oil prices expected to stabilize after initial spikes due to increased production and weak demand[19] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. inflation data shows a slight increase in CPI to 2.4% year-on-year, with core CPI remaining stable at 2.8%, indicating manageable inflation pressures[26] - The core services sector continues to show signs of cooling, with year-on-year growth at 3.7%, suggesting that consumer demand remains weak[27] - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, reflecting a cautious economic outlook[27] Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices experienced declines during the week of June 7-14, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down by 0.63% and 0.39% respectively[22] - International oil prices rose significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 13.1%, contributing to a general uptick in commodity prices, including a 3.17% rise in gold[22]