Minsheng Securities·2025-06-20 07:37Group 1 - The report highlights a mixed performance in metal prices during 2025H1, with strong price resilience observed in copper and aluminum, while other metals like zinc faced declines [3][11][12] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector was robust, with a year-to-date weighted average increase of 15.69% as of May 30, 2025, outperforming major indices [24][30] - The outlook for 2025H2 suggests continued upward pressure on industrial metal prices due to persistent supply constraints and resilient demand, despite external tariff uncertainties [3][35] Group 2 - In the aluminum sector, supply risks from Guinea's bauxite resources are emphasized, with domestic production nearing capacity limits and slow recovery in European electrolytic aluminum production [4][35] - The demand for aluminum is significantly driven by the electric vehicle and photovoltaic industries, which helps offset declines in real estate demand [4][35] - The copper market is characterized by a steep supply curve and strong price resilience, supported by domestic policies and overseas supply chain restructuring [5][36] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on industrial metal stocks, particularly in the aluminum and copper sectors, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [5][36] - Key recommended stocks in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, and Tianshan Aluminum, while in the copper sector, Wukuang Resources and Zijin Mining are emphasized [5][36] - The report indicates that the supply-demand balance for copper is tightening, with historical low inventories suggesting potential for price increases [5][36]