食品饮料行业2025年下半年投资策略：成长中枢下沉，渠道和产品创新推动发展

Core Insights - The food and beverage industry has transitioned from high growth to reasonable growth since 2020, with revenue growth further narrowing in 2024 [4][5][6] - Despite the slowdown, emerging markets such as prepared dishes, baking, health products, and tea drinks are thriving, reflecting a trend towards consumer upgrading and entertainment [4][5] - The industry has experienced a significant decline in shareholder returns compared to historical levels due to the slowdown in growth and product structure upgrades [4][5] Revenue Growth - Revenue growth in the food and beverage sector has generally slowed since 2020, with an average annual growth rate dropping from 13.67% (2016-2019) to 7.61% (2020-2024), a reduction of 6.06 percentage points [6][12] - Specific categories have seen substantial declines in revenue growth, such as health products (-13.81 percentage points), liquor (-8.39 percentage points), and snacks (-10.96 percentage points) [7][12] - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the sector recorded revenue growth of 3.92% and 2.54%, respectively, indicating a further decline [12][15] Profitability Indicators - The food and beverage sector's profitability has generally improved since 2025, driven by declining upstream prices rather than internal product upgrades [19][20] - The gross profit margin for the sector increased from 50.27% in 2024 to 54.33% in Q1 2025, with significant improvements in categories like condiments, dairy, and health products [20][24] - Return on equity (ROE) for the sector was 20.69% in 2024, slightly down from 2023 but still above the average since 2016 [24][27] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has seen a cumulative decline of 48.57% from January 2021 to June 2025, reflecting weak performance in the secondary market [30][31] - Only soft drinks, health products, and snacks recorded positive returns since 2021, while other categories experienced negative returns [31][34] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector has dropped to historical lows, with a current valuation of 20.30 times earnings, indicating a need for adjustment to new growth expectations [34][35] Investment Strategy - For 2025, the food and beverage sector is expected to maintain single-digit revenue growth, slightly above the overall industry average [42][43] - Recommended investment opportunities include dairy, beer, soft drinks, health products, and snacks, reflecting the sector's evolving landscape [48][49] - The dairy sector is anticipated to stabilize as raw milk prices are expected to recover, benefiting the entire supply chain [49][53]