沪铜市场周报：供给收敛需求走弱，沪铜或将有所承压-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to converging supply and weakening demand. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and a weak - oscillation strategy, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 0.03% and an amplitude of 1.36%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 77,990 yuan/ton [4]. - International Situation: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two rate cuts this year, and Powell emphasized uncertainty, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Domestic Situation: In May, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 6.4% [4]. - Fundamentals: The TC cost of copper concentrates remains low, and domestic port inventories are rapidly declining. Supply may gradually tighten. Some smelters may have passive production cuts and maintenance plans due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, scrap copper, and blister copper. The growth rate of refined copper supply will slow down. Demand is affected by the off - season, with weakening orders and a seasonal decline in the operating rate of some downstream copper processing enterprises. The spot market has cautious buying sentiment, and social inventories have slightly accumulated [4]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contracts: As of June 20, 2025, the basis of the main Shanghai copper contract was 410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 535 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 77,990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the position was 166,882 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 26,965 lots [9]. - Spot Prices: As of June 20, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 315 yuan/ton [15]. - Inter - period Contracts: As of June 20, 2025, the inter - month spread of the main Shanghai copper contract was 420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 130 yuan/ton [15]. - Premiums and Positions: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 8,386 lots, an increase of 304 lots from last week [21]. - Options Market: As of June 20, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.9134, a decrease of 0.0193 from last week [26]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Mining Prices and Processing Fees: The price of domestic copper concentrates in the main mining areas (Jiangxi) was 68,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - Imports: In April 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.9244 million tons, an increase of 531,300 tons from March, a growth rate of 22.2% and a year - on - year growth rate of 25.6%. The含税 refined - scrap copper price difference was 1,288.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 357.69 yuan/ton [34]. - Production and Inventory: In March 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,969 thousand tons, an increase of 202 thousand tons from February, a growth rate of 11.43%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3% from February. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons [39]. 3.3.2 Supply - side - Production: In May 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.15%. In March 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,426 thousand tons, an increase of 234 thousand tons from February, a growth rate of 10.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 82.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from February [41]. - Imports: In May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline rate of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline rate of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 933.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 531.43 yuan/ton [49][50]. - Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,588 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,387 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 149,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,900 tons [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - Copper Products: In May 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from April, a growth rate of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline rate of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline rate of 15.69% [61]. - Power and Appliances: As of April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 1.6% and 14.59% respectively. In May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% respectively [67]. - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.7%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 30.67%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 193,460 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.8% and a month - on - month growth rate of 28.21% [73]. 3.3.4 Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: According to ICSG statistics, in March 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 20,500 tons [76].