担忧美国介入伊以冲突，油价高位波动

Report Core View - On June 19 (Thursday), the WTI July crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed due to the Juneteenth holiday. The Brent August crude oil spot contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed up $2.15 per barrel to $78.85 per barrel, a gain of 2.80% [2] - A source said that US President Trump told his senior aides that he had approved an attack plan on Iran but would not issue a final order for the time being to see if Iran would abandon its nuclear program. The White House said Trump would decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report showed that for the week ending June 13, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. US crude oil inventories fell by 11.5 million barrels, the largest decline since the week ending June 28, 2024, compared with a market expectation of a 1.8 million - barrel decrease. US crude oil inventories were 420.9 million barrels, the lowest level since January [4] - In the short - term, the market will still trade on Middle East geopolitical tensions, and oil prices will hover at high levels. Fundamentally, the peak summer driving season is approaching, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries have recovered from maintenance, the China - US economic and trade negotiations in London have made positive progress, the macro - environment is currently loose, OPEC+ has not effectively increased production, and US shale oil production has declined for seven consecutive weeks. In the long - term, due to the increasing supply trend and demand being restricted by the sluggish economic recovery outlook and the substitution of new energy, oil prices will decline from high levels [5]