棉花（纱）市场周报：基本面变化不大，等待新因素指引-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1%. The consumption off - season in the textile industry is evident, with slow inventory clearance and minor changes in the old - crop fundamentals, resulting in short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas due to the risk of high - temperature heat damage [7]. - Future trading should focus on factors such as changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Trend: This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1% [7]. - International Situation: The sowing progress of U.S. cotton lags behind the same period in previous years, and the crop rating has been downgraded, but the recent weather conditions in major producing areas are favorable [7]. - Domestic Situation: The textile industry is in a consumption off - season. New orders are poor, with limited summer order increments, mostly short - term and small - scale. Some enterprises have reduced shifts, and the overall operating rate is slowly declining. Some spinning enterprises are accumulating inventory, with poor profit margins, leading to cautious raw material procurement [7]. - Future Outlook: In the short term, prices will fluctuate. There is a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton in full bloom in most parts of Xinjiang. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season cotton in major producing areas [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - U.S. Cotton Market: This week, the price of the U.S. cotton December contract fell by about 1.89%. As of June 10, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.35% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position increased by 4.40% month - on - month, and the net position decreased by 13.74% month - on - month [11]. - U.S. Cotton Export: For the week ending June 5, the net increase in U.S. cotton export sales was 60,200 bales, a 45% decrease from the previous week and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [18]. - International Cotton Spot Price: As of June 17, 2025, the international cotton spot price index was 78.75 cents per pound, a 0.77% increase from the previous week [18]. - Futures Market: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2509 rose by about 0.04%, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract rose by about 0.1%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 40,263, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 148 lots. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 10,532 lots, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 2 lots [22][29][35]. - Futures and Spot Price Difference: This week, the price difference between Zhengzhou Cotton 9 - 1 contracts was 147 yuan per ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,421 yuan per ton [39]. - Spot Market: As of June 20, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,879 yuan per ton. The spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,300 yuan per ton. As of June 12, 2025, CY index: OEC10s was 14,540 yuan per ton, and CY index: JC40 was 23,440 yuan per ton [43][50]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of June 17, 2025, the 1% quota port pick - up price of the imported cotton price index (FC Index): M decreased by 0.64% month - on - month, and the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. As of June 18, 2025, the port pick - up prices of imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for C32S, C21S, and JC32S remained unchanged month - on - month [55]. - Imported Cotton Cost and Profit: As of June 18, 2025, the cost profit of the imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 497 yuan per ton, and that of the imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,253 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a 16.71% decrease from the previous month and an 8.36% decrease from the same period last year. As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 941,100 tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from the previous month [61]. - Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 20,000 tons from the previous month and an 86.3% decrease from the same period last year. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 100,000 tons, a 14.5% decrease from the same period last year and a 16.67% decrease from the previous month. From January to May 2025, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 560,000 tons, a 15.8% decrease from the same period last year [65]. - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side: As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [69]. - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase from the same period last year. In May 2025, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% increase from the same period last year. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase from the same period last year [73][75]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Related Markets - Options Market: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [77]. - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided [82].