Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The blast furnace has resumed production, and overall steel production has increased. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils has risen due to overseas export resilience, while that of rebar has slightly declined. Steel inventories are still being depleted, but the depletion rate of rebar has slowed down. - As the off - season for demand approaches, the apparent demand is expected to continue to weaken. The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, leading to a further weakening of building material demand, while the high - frequency data of steel exports have rebounded. - Although the blast furnace output has reached its peak, the blast furnace profit is relatively high, and some blast furnaces may resume production according to the production schedule. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved recently, with a short - term small - scale rebound. - After entering the off - season for demand, contradictions will accumulate, and there is a risk of triggering a negative feedback. Recently, due to the outbreak of overseas geopolitical conflicts, energy prices have generally risen, causing coking coal and coke to continue to rebound. Currently, the market is still trading on the logic of profit contraction, so steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices is downward [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook - Data Summary - Supply: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons (+46,100 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons (+8,000 tons). The daily average of hot metal from 247 blast furnaces was 2.4218 million tons (+5,700 tons). The capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 31.073 yuan/ton. The cost of electric arc furnaces in East China during peak hours was about 3,396 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 303.18 yuan/ton; during off - peak hours, the cost was about 3,231 yuan/ton (converted to the theoretical price), and the profit of third - tier rebar in East China during off - peak hours was - 138 yuan/ton. The overall steel supply is relatively high [4]. - Demand: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar this week was 2.1919 million tons (-7,800 tons), and that for small - sample hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (+108,100 tons). The apparent demand for steel has rebounded. Recently, the availability of funds for downstream housing construction projects has declined, but steel exports have remained highly resilient, leading to an expansion of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. From January to May, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the increment of domestic project investment was insufficient. In May, the sales, new construction, and completion areas of housing were all in negative growth, and the decline rate widened. The official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 48.3%. The official manufacturing PMI expanded, while the Caixin manufacturing PMI contracted. In May, China's automobile production increased by 11.67% year - on - year, and exports increased by 22.14% year - on - year. The production growth rate of household appliances slowed down in April, while the production schedule of the three major white goods in June increased by 7.3% year - on - year. The Markit manufacturing PMI data in the US in May was 52.3, a new high since February. The new order index reached a new high since February 2024. The initial jobless claims increased last week. The preliminary value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4, higher than market expectations, a new high in 33 months but still below the break - even line [4]. - Inventory: For rebar, the mill inventory decreased by 5,700 tons, the social inventory decreased by 64,400 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 70,100 tons. For hot - rolled coils, the mill inventory decreased by 100 tons, the social inventory decreased by 52,300 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 52,400 tons. The mill inventory decreased by 13,000 tons month - on - month, the social inventory decreased by 143,700 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 155,700 tons [4]. - Outlook and Trading Strategies - Outlook: With the arrival of the off - season for demand, the apparent demand will continue to weaken. There is a risk of negative feedback after entering the off - season. Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term trend is downward [7]. - Trading Strategies - Single - sided: Steel prices will remain range - bound at the bottom, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the short position on the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal, and to intervene in the 10 - 01 reverse spread on rallies. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - Spot Prices: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,090 yuan (+10 yuan), and that in Beijing was 3,180 yuan (unchanged). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan (+20 yuan), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,110 yuan (unchanged) [13]. - Profit Situations - Long - process Steel Mills: The cash profit of East China rebar and Tangshan rebar, as well as the cash profit of Tianjin and East China hot - rolled coils, are presented in the report, but specific values are not summarized in text. - Short - process Steel Mills: The profit of East China electric arc furnaces during peak hours was - 340.47 yuan (-44.9 yuan), and that during off - peak hours was - 175 yuan (-45 yuan) [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - Domestic Macroeconomic Data - In May, China's PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 3.4% year - on - year. - In May, the new social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate increased. The new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan. Resident loans increased year - on - year, while enterprise loans still declined year - on - year, but the month - on - month data showed some improvement. The increase in social financing in May mainly came from government bond issuance, and the increase in loans to the real economy hit a new low in recent years. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was +3.7%, with the growth rate decreasing month - on - month. The cumulative year - on - year investment in real estate development was - 10.7%, that in manufacturing was +8.5%, and that in infrastructure construction was +10.42%. The growth rates of all three types of investment decreased month - on - month [45]. - International Macroeconomic Data - In the US in May, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4%, the monthly rate was 0.1%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, and the monthly rate was 0.1%. - The US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances starting from June 23 [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation - Supply - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4218 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of 49 electric arc furnaces was 31.7% (-0.3%). - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,100 tons. The small - sample production of hot - rolled coils was 3.2545 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,000 tons [65][69]. - Demand - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 7%), a month - on - month decrease of 7,800 tons. The small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 2.43%), a month - on - month increase of 108,100 tons. - The funds available at downstream construction sites have decreased, and the demand for building materials has weakened. The export of steel still shows strong resilience, but the export orders of the manufacturing industry may decline starting from July. The subsequent production schedules of the automobile and household appliance industries will decrease, putting pressure on steel demand [72]. - Inventory - Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are still being depleted. The total rebar inventory decreased by 70,100 tons, and the total hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 52,400 tons [4].
钢材：高炉小幅复产，钢价支撑较强
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-20 08:50