风险偏好下降，继续防御

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]