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石油石化行业:美加天然气期货价下跌,欧美天然气库存量上升
Dongxing Securities·2025-06-20 08:55

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [3][38]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices continue to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.19% as of June 13, reaching 4406.00 CNY/ton. In contrast, US and Canadian natural gas futures prices have also decreased, while UK prices have increased by 5.50% [1][2][7]. - China's natural gas production in May fell by 2.99% month-on-month, totaling 613,420 tons. Meanwhile, US and European natural gas inventories have risen, with US inventories increasing by 9.73% and European inventories by 22.55% [1][15][18]. - European natural gas imports in May decreased by 2.20% month-on-month but increased by 8.66% year-on-year. Notably, imports from Russia rose month-on-month but fell significantly by 50.65% year-on-year [2][24][28]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased by 145.00 CNY/ton, a drop of 3.19% month-on-month and 0.50% year-on-year. The US NYMEX natural gas futures price fell by 0.44% month-on-month but increased by 23.67% year-on-year [7][10]. - Canadian natural gas futures prices saw a significant decline of 33.56% month-on-month, while UK prices increased by 5.50% [10][11]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in May was 613,420 tons, down 2.99% from the previous month. The apparent consumption of natural gas in April decreased by 0.86% month-on-month but increased by 2.26% year-on-year [15][16]. Inventory - As of June 13, US LNG/LPG inventories rose to 169,056 thousand barrels, marking a 9.73% increase month-on-month. European natural gas inventories also increased by 22.55% month-on-month, totaling 601.10 billion kWh [18][22]. Imports and Exports - In May, Europe’s total natural gas imports decreased by 2.20% month-on-month to 172,918.64 million cubic meters, while imports from Russia increased by 10.11% month-on-month but decreased by 50.65% year-on-year [24][27][28].