油脂油料周报：中东局势影响油脂领涨市场-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market is influenced by complex factors, with macro factors outweighing commodity supply - demand. The domestic rapeseed meal market is expected to maintain a relatively strong short - term pattern, but there are risks of adjustment due to concentrated long - position liquidation [6][135]. - The international and domestic oil markets are highly affected by geopolitical situations, especially the Middle - East situation. The short - term trend is oscillating upwards, but there are risks of sharp fluctuations due to long - position liquidation if the crude oil price adjusts [70][135]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated at a high level, and the domestic rapeseed meal market followed suit, rising slightly. The soybean meal spot price also increased slightly, but the rebound space was restricted by the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage [6]. 3.1.2 Export and Inspection Data - As of the week ending June 12, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 215,803 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 45,415,624 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [11]. 3.1.3 Sowing Progress and Crop Conditions - As of June 16, the U.S. soybean sowing progress was 93%, the excellent - good rate was 66%, and the emergence rate was 84% [25]. 3.1.4 Weather Conditions - The active weather east of the Rocky Mountains has caused delays in fieldwork, while the weather west of the Rocky Mountains is hot and dry [28]. 3.1.5 Global Market News - China plans to reduce the proportion of soybean meal in feed, which may reduce soybean import demand. The U.S. is expected to increase the planting areas of soybeans, corn, and spring wheat. Ukraine maintains a zero - export - tariff policy for soybeans and rapeseeds. Argentina will raise soybean export tariffs from June 30 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Profitability - As of the end of this week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 5.988 million tons. The domestic spot and futures crushing profits have recovered [45]. 3.1.7 Production and Inventory of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - As of the 24th week of 2025, the domestic soybean oil mill's average startup rate was 65.04%, and the soybean meal inventory was 413,000 tons. The imported rapeseed startup rate was 13.45%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 10,000 tons [53][63]. 3.1.8 Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 24th week was 1.8644 million tons [57]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, international oils rose significantly. The U.S. EPA's new biofuel blending proposal and the Middle - East situation drove up the prices. The domestic oil market followed the international market, with different oils taking turns leading the rise [70]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - India cancelled some palm oil orders due to high prices. Indonesia's palm oil exports increased in May. Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 increased by 10.88% year - on - year. The U.S. NOPA's May soybean oil inventory decreased significantly [75][76][78]. 3.2.3 Weather in Southeast Asia - From June 11 - 13, Typhoon "Utip" brought heavy rain to parts of Vietnam, and seasonal monsoon showers prevailed in other areas [81]. 3.2.4 Spot Price Trends and Spread Analysis - The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly declined [109]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 24th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.1958 million tons, showing a week - on - week increase [94]. 3.2.6 Basis Analysis - This week, the 9 - 1 positive - spread logic applied to soybean oil and palm oil, and the 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline [119][122]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - No specific conclusions were drawn from the seasonal analysis charts provided in the report. 3.3.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - Technically, the short - and medium - term indicators of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are bullish, while the long - term indicators are entangled [134]. - Fundamentally, the protein meal market may face pressure if the Middle - East peace talks are successful; otherwise, it will continue to oscillate strongly. The oil market will be affected by the Middle - East situation, and short - term oscillations are expected to be strong, but chasing high prices should be done with caution [135].