Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alloy market is experiencing low - level fluctuations due to increased disturbances on the cost side [1] - For ferrosilicon, the supply is expected to remain low, demand has short - term resilience, and energy cost increases have boosted sentiment, leading to short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - For silicomanganese, supply has a slight recovery, demand weakens moderately, and supply - side news disturbances cause low - level fluctuations [4] - The trading strategies include a low - level fluctuation outlook for single - side trading, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options on rallies for options trading [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Ferrosilicon: After the previous alloy plant overhauls ended, production increased slightly. Given the current profit level, the resumption of production is expected to be limited, and overall supply will likely stay low. Downstream steel demand has entered the off - season, but the decline is not significant. Steel mill blast furnaces had a slight resumption this week, so demand has short - term resilience. Recently, coal prices stabilized, and international crude oil prices rose significantly, increasing energy costs. As an energy - intensive product, ferrosilicon sentiment was boosted, resulting in short - term low - level fluctuations [4] - Silicomanganese: Supply also increased slightly, with the absolute value remaining low. The demand for rebar has entered the off - season, and the weakening is mild according to micro - data. There were multiple news disturbances on the manganese ore supply side, but data shows the supply is currently normal. Due to the low valuation of manganese ore prices, sentiment is prone to repeated disturbances, causing silicomanganese to fluctuate at a low level [4] Trading Strategies - Single - side: Low - level fluctuations [5] - Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [5] - Options: Sell call options on rallies [5] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - Demand: According to Mysteel data, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 242.18 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 20,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70% of the total demand) was 123,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] - Supply: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 32.69%, a week - on - week increase of 1.34%. The weekly ferrosilicon output was 97,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China was 36.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09%. The weekly silicomanganese output (99% of the supply) was 176,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons [9] - Inventory: In the week of June 20, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises in China was 68,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in China (accounting for 79.77% of the national production capacity) was 205,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [10] Spot Price - Basis - The content provides price and basis data for Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi from 2021 to 2025 [13] Double - Silicon Enterprise Production Situation - The content shows the weekly output and operating rate data of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [17] Steel Mill Production Situation - The content presents data on the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [21] Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese was 5,605 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 125 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 56.5%. The production cost of Ningxia silicomanganese was 5,689 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 259 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 20.9%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [22] Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On June 19, 2025, the production cost of Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon was 5,471 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 371 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 36.6%. The production cost of Ningxia ferrosilicon was 5,427 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 327 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.4%. Other regions also had corresponding cost, profit, and output share data [30] Cost of Carbon Elements and Electricity Price - The content provides price data for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [37][40] Hebei Representative Steel Mill Double - Silicon Steel Bidding Price - The content shows the monthly procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 from 2020 to 2025 [44] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - The content presents data on the cumulative and monthly output of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon from 2019 to 2025 [50][52][53] Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - The content shows data on the monthly net import of Chinese manganese ore and the monthly net export of Chinese ferrosilicon from 2012 to 2025 [57] Magnesium Metal Demand - The content provides price data for Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and cumulative production data for Shaanxi Yulin magnesium metal from 2013 to 2025 [58] Alloy Plant vs. Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - The content shows data on alloy plant ferrosilicon inventory, inventory by region, steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days, and inventory available days by region from 2021 to 2025 [61] Alloy Plant, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - The content shows data on steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, inventory available days by region, Tianjin Port manganese ore total inventory, and alloy plant silicomanganese inventory from 2021 to 2025 [64]
成本端扰动增多，合金低位震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-20 09:15