Dongguan Securities·2025-06-20 09:22Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [54]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry index fell by 6.05% from June 6 to June 19, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 5.16 percentage points [10][11]. - All sub-sectors within the industry underperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period, with the snack sector experiencing the largest decline at -9.30% [11]. - The report highlights a marginal easing in the liquor sector, particularly in the high-end liquor market, and suggests monitoring demand recovery in the second half of the year [49][50]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index decreased by 6.05%, ranking 30th among Shenwan's primary industry sectors [10]. - Approximately 8% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Jiao Da Ang Li (+16.22%) and ST Chun Tian (+7.73%) [14]. - The overall industry valuation is currently at a PE (TTM) of approximately 20.31 times, below the five-year average of 34 times [17][18]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Liquor Sector - Prices for Feitian and Pu Wuliang decreased, with Feitian's price at 1930 CNY/bottle, down 70 CNY from June 5, 2025 [21]. 2.2 Seasoning Sector - Soybean prices increased by 2.59% month-on-month, while white sugar prices decreased by 2.03% [24]. 2.3 Beer Sector - The average price of aluminum increased by 2.59%, while barley prices decreased slightly [29]. 2.4 Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk was 3.04 CNY/kg, down 0.01 CNY from June 6, 2025 [34]. 2.5 Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 20.29 CNY/kg, down 0.41 CNY from June 5, 2025 [36]. 3. Important Industry News - In April, beer production from large enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year [39]. - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol reached 278.7 billion CNY from January to May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [41]. - China's beer export volume surged by 52.9% in May compared to the previous year [42]. 4. Key Company Announcements - Luzhou Laojiao announced a share buyback plan, with 213.38 million shares acquired, representing 0.14% of total shares [44]. - Haitian Flavor Industry's H-shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating positive market reception [46]. 5. Industry Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the need to focus on the recovery of demand in the liquor sector, particularly after recent regulatory changes affecting consumption patterns [49][50]. - It suggests monitoring high-demand sectors such as beer and soft drinks as the consumption season approaches [50].