房地产及建材行业双周报（2025、06、06-2025、06、19）：楼市基本面仍在筑底阶段，政策加码出台预期提升-20250620

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support increasing. The sales performance in May showed a year-on-year decline, but a month-on-month recovery was noted, indicating a mixed market sentiment [4][28]. - The building materials sector, particularly cement, is facing weak demand due to seasonal factors and adverse weather conditions. However, fiscal spending and urban renewal initiatives are expected to support future demand [5][47]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Overview - From January to May, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, with new housing starts down by 22.8% and sales area down by 2.9% [27][28]. - In May, new residential sales area fell by 4.56% year-on-year but increased by 10.34% month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery trend [28]. - Housing prices in major cities are still in a bottoming phase, with first-tier cities seeing a year-on-year price drop of 1.7% [4][28]. Building Materials Market Overview - The building materials sector has seen a decline, with the cement market entering a seasonal low due to weather impacts and reduced construction activity [5][47]. - The average price of cement is currently around 339 RMB per ton, with weak demand expected to persist in the short term [36][47]. - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves is expected to improve liquidity and stabilize the real estate market, positively impacting building materials demand [48]. Recommendations - For the real estate sector, it is suggested to focus on stable central state-owned enterprises and regional leaders in first and second-tier cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][29]. - In the building materials sector, attention is drawn to leading companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and innovation [5][47][48].