Dongguan Securities·2025-06-20 09:22Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Standard Allocation," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [33]. Core Insights - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12% but a month-on-month decrease of 17.79%. Domestic sales were 8,392 units, down 1.48% year-on-year and down 33.12% month-on-month. Export sales were 9,810 units, up 5.42% year-on-year and up 2.24% month-on-month, accounting for 53.90% of total sales [3]. - For the first five months of 2025, cumulative excavator sales totaled 101,716 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.44%, with domestic sales at 57,501 units (up 25.70%) and export sales at 44,215 units (up 8.20%) [3]. - In May 2025, loader sales were 10,535 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.24% but a month-on-month decrease of 9.59%. Domestic sales were 6,037 units (up 16.72% year-on-year) and export sales were 4,498 units (down 3.31% year-on-year) [4]. - Cumulative loader sales for the first five months of 2025 reached 52,755 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.13%, with domestic sales at 29,607 units (up 25.36%) and export sales at 23,148 units (up 2.39%) [4]. - The report notes that the domestic demand for excavators has turned negative in May, while cumulative sales remain robust. The decline in average working hours and operating rates for major construction machinery products is attributed to seasonal factors and demand pull-forward at the beginning of the year [5]. - The acceleration of local government bond issuance in the first five months of 2025 is expected to support domestic demand, alongside ongoing infrastructure investment and replacement policies [5]. - In April 2025, the export trade value of construction machinery was $5.152 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.46% and a month-on-month increase of 4.89%. Cumulative export trade value for the first four months was $18.073 billion, up 9.10% year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Excavator Sales - May 2025 excavator sales: 18,202 units, YoY +2.12%, MoM -17.79% [3] - Domestic sales: 8,392 units, YoY -1.48%, MoM -33.12% [3] - Export sales: 9,810 units, YoY +5.42%, MoM +2.24% [3] - Cumulative sales (Jan-May 2025): 101,716 units, YoY +17.44% [3] Loader Sales - May 2025 loader sales: 10,535 units, YoY +7.24%, MoM -9.59% [4] - Domestic sales: 6,037 units, YoY +16.72% [4] - Export sales: 4,498 units, YoY -3.31% [4] - Cumulative sales (Jan-May 2025): 52,755 units, YoY +14.13% [4] Market Dynamics - Domestic excavator demand has turned negative in May, but cumulative sales remain strong [5] - Local government bond issuance is accelerating, expected to support domestic demand [5] - April 2025 export trade value: $5.152 billion, YoY +12.46% [5]