Dongguan Securities·2025-06-20 09:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform in line with the market index within the next six months [56]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown resilience, with a 1.95% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.83 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [2][13]. - Precious metals have seen a significant rise, with a 39.57% increase year-to-date, driven by factors such as central bank purchases and heightened investment demand [19][51]. - The report highlights the structural advantages of China's rare earth industry, emphasizing its leading position in production and refining technology, which is expected to play a crucial role in global resource competition [52][53]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of June 19, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 1.95% over the last two weeks, 4.55% for the month, and 13.03% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index in all time frames [2][13][19]. - The sub-sectors include precious metals up by 4.05%, energy metals up by 3.22%, industrial metals up by 2.03%, and small metals down by 0.97% [18][19]. Industry News - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, which is expected to exert slight pressure on gold prices in the short term, but long-term factors such as increased central bank purchases and investment demand are likely to support gold prices [51][40]. - The Ministry of Commerce has accelerated the review of rare earth export licenses, reflecting a growing focus on the rare earth industry due to changes in tariff policies and emerging demand [52][42]. Company Announcements - Companies such as Xiamen Tungsten and China Rare Earth have announced significant projects aimed at enhancing production capacity and market position, indicating a proactive approach to industry growth [45][54]. - Zijin Mining has adjusted its copper production guidance due to operational challenges, which may impact its profitability in the short term [49][50]. Price Analysis - As of June 19, 2025, LME prices for key industrial metals are as follows: copper at $9,619.50/ton, aluminum at $2,525.50/ton, and nickel at $15,040/ton [25]. - Precious metals prices include COMEX gold at $3,386.40/oz and silver at $36.76/oz, with slight fluctuations noted since early June [34][51].