计算机行业半年度策略：持续掘金国产化、AI、智算三大赛道

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous opportunities in domestic substitution, artificial intelligence (AI), and intelligent computing as key investment themes for the second half of 2025 [4][9]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The computer industry is expected to see a recovery in revenue and profit growth in 2025, although signs of internal competition persist [13][18]. - In the first four months of 2025, software business revenue reached 4.26 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while total profit was 507.5 billion yuan, up 14.2% [13][15]. - The computer industry index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.79 percentage points as of June 17, 2025, indicating a positive market trend [20][21]. Group 2: Domestic Substitution - The report highlights significant breakthroughs in domestic EDA (Electronic Design Automation) tools and the launch of the HarmonyOS PC, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process [27][41]. - The domestic EDA market is currently dominated by foreign companies, but local firms are gaining ground due to increased demand and government support [31][33]. - Huawei's CloudMatrix 384 super node has achieved performance parity with Nvidia's GB200 NVL72, marking a significant milestone for domestic AI chip capabilities [45][54]. Group 3: Artificial Intelligence - The release of DeepSeek-R1 positions China among the global leaders in AI, with expectations for explosive growth in large model applications driven by improved inference capabilities and reduced costs [5][64]. - The anticipated launch of GPT-5 and DeepSeek-R2 in the latter half of 2025 is expected to create substantial investment opportunities [5][72]. - The report notes that the frequency of updates for large models has increased significantly, indicating a rapidly evolving competitive landscape [72]. Group 4: Computing Power Infrastructure - The report anticipates a trend towards concentrated delivery of large-scale intelligent computing centers in 2025, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing [4][20]. - The use of liquid cooling technology is expected to become more widespread in domestic data centers, enhancing efficiency and performance [4][25]. - The ongoing development of a computing power internet in China is projected to facilitate a comprehensive upgrade of the computing network [4][29].