Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-20 10:45Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that this week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.19% and an amplitude of 2.72%. In the future, the Fed will maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged, and the resumption of production of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is expected to increase supply. However, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressures in the smelting end, and the seasonal off - season in the consumer electronics demand end coexist. Although some downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks, overall, it is expected that the tin price will fluctuate and adjust. Technically, the position is low, and both long and short sides are cautious, facing the resistance of MA60, with support at 257,000. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Market Review: This week, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.19% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 260,560 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Outlook: Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fundamentally, the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and Congo is expected to increase supply, but the actual resumption progress may be less than expected. The smelting end is facing shortages of raw materials and cost pressures. The consumer electronics demand is in the off - season, but some downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks. Technically, the position is low, facing the resistance of MA60, with support at 257,000 [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 260,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,740 yuan/ton from June 13, a decline of 1.04%. As of June 19, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 32,100 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 600 US dollars/ton from June 13, a decline of 1.83%. The spot premium has been adjusted downward [8]. - Ratio: As of June 20, 2025, the current ratio of the prices of Shanghai tin and Shanghai nickel was 2.2, an increase of 0.01 from June 13. As of June 19, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 8.2, an increase of 0.09 from June 12 [15]. - Position: As of June 20, 2025, the position of Shanghai tin was 47,762 lots, a decrease of 3,729 lots from June 13, a decline of 7.24%. The net position of the top 20 was 3,887 lots, a decrease of 610 lots from June 16 [16][17]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production: In April 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 9,861.25 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.93%. From January to April, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 36,773.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 47.92%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was - 0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to April, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [22][23]. - Tin Ore Processing Fee: On June 13, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from June 6, a decline of 23.53%. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from June 6, a decline of 16% [27]. - Refined Tin Import and Export: As of June 20, 2025, the profit and loss of tin import was 1,416.37 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,696.89 yuan/ton from June 13. In May 2025, the import of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to April, the cumulative import of refined tin was 8,582.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. In May 2025, the export of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to April, the cumulative export of refined tin was 7,918.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.22% [31][32]. - Inventory: As of June 20, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,175 tons, a decrease of 85 tons from June 13, a decline of 3.76%. The total tin inventory in Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,965 tons, a decrease of 142 tons from last week, a decline of 2%. The tin futures inventory was 6,502 tons, a decrease of 272 tons from June 13, a decline of 4.02% [39]. Demand Side - Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: On June 18, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,251.02, an increase of 18.49 from June 11, an increase of 0.35%. From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces from the same period last year, an increase of 13.61% [42][43]. - Tin - Plated Sheet Export: As of April 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from March 2025, a decline of 9.09%. As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet export volume was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons from April, an increase of 18.47% [49].