Tianfeng Securities·2025-06-20 10:44Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is under short-term pressure, but there are medium-term strong alpha layout opportunities [2][11] - The consumer goods sector is focused on "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" as two main investment opportunities [3][13] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 9 to June 13, the food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 index had declines of -4.37% and -0.25% respectively. Specific sectors include: - Health products (+2.44%) - Baked goods (-0.72%) - Meat products (-1.15%) - Soft drinks (-1.75%) - Snacks (-1.85%) - Dairy products (-2.41%) - Pre-processed foods (-3.00%) - Other alcoholic beverages (-3.43%) - Fermented seasonings III (-3.57%) - Baijiu III (-5.31%) - Beer (-6.61%) [1][18] Liquor Sector Insights - The baijiu sector saw a decline of -5.31%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300. This is attributed to: 1. Price declines of major baijiu products ahead of the 618 shopping festival 2. Potential impacts from "drinking bans" on certain consumption scenarios - Current prices for 2025 Moutai (original/scattered) are 2000 RMB/1960 RMB, down by 115 RMB/70 RMB from last week. The price for Pu'er (8th generation) is 930 RMB, down by 10 RMB from last week. The baijiu index PE-TTM is currently at 17.81X, which is 3.40% below the reasonable low level over the past decade [2][11][12]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The health products sector saw a positive growth of +2.44%. The report remains optimistic about investment opportunities in health products, soft drinks, and snacks, especially in Q2 due to low performance baselines. The focus is on companies that can achieve "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" [3][13][16]. - The soft drink sector experienced a decline of -1.75%, with notable companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage facing slight declines. The report suggests monitoring the demand resilience as the peak season approaches [13][16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the soft drink and low-alcohol sectors include: Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulu, Dongpeng Beverage, and others [4][17]. - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from concentration increases are recommended, including Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [4][17]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with "cost reduction and efficiency enhancement" and "market share improvement" are highlighted, including: Lihigh Food, Ximai Food, and others [4][17].