通信行业中期策略：AI算力升级，价值成长主导

Core Insights - The communication industry is currently valued below historical averages, with a PE-TTM of 20.29X as of June 13, 2025, indicating potential for valuation uplift [14][31] - The industry has experienced significant volatility due to various factors, including U.S. tariff policies and concerns over future demand for optical modules, but has shown signs of recovery since mid-April 2025 [4][14] - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the communication sector, highlighting optimism for growth in AI-related applications and infrastructure [1][6] Market Review and Industry Performance - As of Q1 2025, the communication industry generated a total revenue of 646.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with a net profit of 51.54 billion yuan, up 6.4% [17] - The overall gross margin for the communication industry in Q1 2025 was 26.55%, with a net margin of 8.53%, reflecting slight improvements in profitability [18] - The optical communication sector achieved a revenue of 21.32 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 56.7% increase year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 105.2% [36] Optical Communication - The optical communication segment is expected to maintain high growth, driven by increasing demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly with the anticipated rapid growth of 1.6T optical modules by 2026 [40] - The sector's PE-TTM stands at 25.97X, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [40] - Key players in the optical communication market are expected to benefit from advancements in AI and cloud computing, which are driving demand for high-capacity data transmission [40][46] AI Mobile Phones - AI mobile phones are set to redefine user interaction and service personalization, with increasing market penetration expected as AI capabilities improve [3][3] - The average selling price of smartphones is projected to rise due to innovations in AI technology, enhancing profit margins for manufacturers [3][3] - Domestic manufacturers are making significant progress in optimizing AI models, with DeepSeek playing a crucial role in developing edge AI ecosystems [3][3] Telecom Operators - The telecom operators' segment reported a revenue of 501.62 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8%, while net profit increased by 3.6% to 42.10 billion yuan [28] - The gross margin for telecom operators was 27.23%, with a net margin of 9.04%, indicating stable profitability despite a slowdown in overall growth [29] - The operators are focusing on enhancing shareholder returns, with high dividend yields expected to continue [4][4]