中辉有色观点-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical variables are large, but the long - term trend of reducing dollar dependence globally and the dual - easing of fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged, so the long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged. For copper, in the short - term, due to the off - season demand, the price needs to be adjusted, but in the long - term, the supply of global copper mines is tight, and there is confidence in the long - term rise of copper prices. Zinc is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and lithium carbonate are all under pressure due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side pressure [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Core View: Gold is in a strong shock, and silver has a strong rebound [1]. - Market Review: European countries cut interest rates, the geopolitical situation did not expand, gold slightly declined, and silver lacked new drivers, with a large outflow of funds [2]. - Basic Logic: Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates, three European central banks cut interest rates in a row, and there are geopolitical variables. The short - term geopolitical variables are large, and the long - term gold long - bull logic remains unchanged [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold is in the adjustment stage, pay attention to the 800 pressure for SHFE gold in the short - term, and consider long - term investment opportunities. Silver lacks new impetus, pay attention to the gap support [3]. Copper - Core View: Copper is under pressure [1]. - Market Review: SHFE copper tested the support of the lower integer mark [6]. - Industry Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, the off - season of consumption is deepening, downstream demand is weak, but green copper demand in power and new energy vehicles is strong [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, take profit on copper long positions, and industrial customers should actively arrange short - hedging at high prices. In the long - term, be confident in the rise of copper prices. SHFE copper focuses on the range of [77800, 78800], and LME copper focuses on [9580, 9680] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Core View: Zinc is under pressure [1]. - Market Review: Zinc rebounded under pressure and showed a weak shock [9]. - Industry Logic: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, zinc is under pressure and tests the previous low support. In the long - term, take short positions at high prices. SHFE zinc focuses on [21700, 22000], and LME zinc focuses on [2600, 2700] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Core View: Aluminum is under pressure [1]. - Market Review: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [11]. - Industry Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas trade is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing, but the demand is entering the off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite imports are high, and the supply is relatively loose [12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell SHFE aluminum at high prices, and pay attention to aluminum ingot inventory changes. The main operation range is [20000 - 20800] [12]. Nickel - Core View: Nickel rebounds and then falls [1]. - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel was under pressure [13]. - Industry Logic: The cost support of nickel mines is weakening, the supply of refined nickel is excessive, and the stainless steel industry is facing the pressure of off - season and high inventory [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operation range of nickel is [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Core View: Lithium carbonate is under pressure [1]. - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 increased positions slightly and oscillated at a low level [15]. - Industry Logic: The supply - side pressure of lithium carbonate remains high, the production has recovered to the same - period high, the new capacity is still ramping up, and the inventory is increasing [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [59000 - 60500] [16].