国信期货生猪周报：均重继续下降，盘面震荡偏强-20250620

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the past week, the live hog spot market rebounded steadily, the futures market was volatile and strong, the basis weakened, and the spread between LH9 and LH11 was volatile and strong. The spot market was supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts, the average weight continued to decline, and the second - fattening significantly shrank, providing strong support for the peak - season contract LH09. Fundamentally, the obvious month - on - month increase in the number of fertile sows in April and May continued to suppress the LH2603 contract. In the short and medium term, the monthly month - on - month increase in the number of sample piglets born from January to May means that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow. Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited. It is expected that the spot market will be volatile and weak in the short term. For futures, the LH09 contract corresponds to the peak consumption season. Although the theoretical slaughter volume will still increase, due to policy - guided weight reduction and restricted sales of second - fattened hogs, the average slaughter weight may be lower, partially alleviating the pressure of the slaughter volume. The futures market has certain support for now. The operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude, and continue to pay attention to the rhythm of weight reduction [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot market rebounded steadily last week, with the futures market being volatile and strong. The basis weakened, and the LH9 - LH11 spread was volatile and strong. The spot was supported by farmers' resistance, and the decline in average weight and reduction in second - fattening supported the LH09 contract. The increase in fertile sows in April and May suppressed the LH2603 contract. The increase in piglet numbers from January to May indicates growing slaughter volume. Consumption is in the off - season, and the spot is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. The LH09 contract has support due to potential weight reduction, and the operation should be treated with a volatile and strong attitude [7]. 2. Key Data and Charts - Live Hog Futures Market: No specific content provided in the given text. - Live Hog Spot Market: The spot market rebounded steadily last week, with limited demand support due to the off - season [7]. - Live Hog Spot: Basis after Regional and Weight Adjustment: On June 19, 2025, with the benchmark contract LH2507 at 13255, data on standard pig prices, weight ranges, regional premiums and discounts, and basis in different provinces are presented. For example, in Henan, the standard pig price was 14.38, and the basis was 1125 [25]. - Live Hog Spot: Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: No specific content provided in the given text. - Live Hog Spot: Regional Price Difference: No specific content provided in the given text. - Change in Fertile Sows: The number of fertile sows increased significantly month - on - month in April and May, which continued to suppress the LH2603 contract [7]. - Change in Piglets: The number of sample piglets born from January to May increased month - on - month, indicating that the theoretical slaughter volume will continue to grow later [7]. - Verification of Live Hog Inventory and Fattening Pig Feed: No specific content provided in the given text. - Live Hog Slaughter Situation: No specific content provided in the given text. - Pork Consumption Situation: Currently, it is the off - season for consumption, and the overall demand support is limited [7]. - Frozen Meat Market Dynamics: No specific content provided in the given text. - Cost and Profit: No specific content provided in the given text. - Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations: In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not started for the third - level early warning, considered for the second - level, and started for the first - level. For excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are started for the second - level early warning and increased for the first - level. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level early warning, releases are mainly concentrated in key periods [73]. - Multi - caliber Comparison: No specific content provided in the given text.