聚丙烯市场周报-20250620

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intensification of the Israel - Iran conflict drove up international oil prices, leading to a significant increase in polypropylene (PP) futures this week. As of June 20, 2025, the PP2509 contract closed at 7,242 yuan/ton, up 2.16% from last week's close [6]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the PP output increased by 1.52% week - on - week to 787,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate rose by 1.20% to 79.84%. On the demand side, the average downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.34% week - on - week to 49.63%. In terms of inventory, the PP commercial inventory increased by 4.23% week - on - week to 820,500 tons [6]. - Looking ahead, next week, some plants are planned for maintenance and restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline slightly. The downstream off - season atmosphere is strong, and the PP downstream operating rate is expected to continue a slight downward trend. In the short term, the cost side is still the main influencing factor of PP prices, and the PP2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 7,200 - 7,350 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The PP2509 contract closed at 7,242 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, up 2.16% from last week [6]. - Fundamentals - Supply: PP output increased by 1.52% to 787,400 tons, and capacity utilization rose by 1.20% to 79.84% [6]. - Demand: The average downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.34% to 49.63% [6]. - Inventory: PP commercial inventory increased by 4.23% to 820,500 tons. Factory inventory increased by 4.52%, trader inventory increased by 6.18%, and port inventory decreased by 0.77% [6]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of oil - based PP rose to 7,884.28 yuan/ton with deeper losses; the coal - based cost remained stable at 6,214.60 yuan/ton with wider profits; the PDH - based cost rose to 7,937.62 yuan/ton with deeper losses [6]. - Outlook: Next week, output and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. The downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly. The PP2509 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 7,200 - 7,350 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price and Volume: The PP futures main contract rose, but the trading volume decreased [8]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: The main contract's position fluctuated slightly, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased slightly [13]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 and 5 - 9 monthly spreads strengthened slightly, while the 1 - 5 monthly spread weakened slightly [20][26]. - L - PP Spread: The L - PP spread strengthened [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - Spot Price: The domestic PP price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton [32]. - Basis: The basis shrank, and the futures market was at a discount [36]. 3.4 Upstream Market - Energy Price: Crude oil prices rose significantly, and coal prices rose slightly [40]. - Propane Price: The propane arrival price was 593 US dollars/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 6,485 yuan/ton [46]. - Methanol Price: The methanol price in Jiangsu rose to 2,765 yuan/ton [51]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance Loss: The PP plant operating rate of petrochemical enterprises increased week - on - week [54]. - Output and Inventory: The total PP inventory increased week - on - week [57]. - Cost and Profit - Cost: The cost of oil - based PP increased significantly, the coal - based cost increased slightly, and the PDH - based cost increased [62][67]. - Profit: The loss of oil - based and PDH - based processes deepened, while the coal - based profit widened slightly [70][76]. - Import and Export: The PP import profit was in loss, and the import window was closed [80]. - Demand - Downstream Price and Operating Rate: The downstream operating rate of PP decreased week - on - week [84]. - Plastic Products Output and Export Value: In May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of plastic products output was 5.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of export value was - 2.0% [89]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the PP main contract was 10.22%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 11.98% [95].