Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the urea futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. Although upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill and there is little pressure to cut prices for now, with the continuous release of new domestic production capacity and the expected end of agricultural demand around the end of June, weak demand will continue to drive the market trend. International urea's stimulating effect on the domestic market has subsided, and in the short term, urea is expected to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the development of subsequent export issues [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved lower today, and the market declined during the day. The supply pressure is limited even during the summer maintenance period due to the continuous release of new domestic production capacity. Agricultural demand is expected to end around the end of June, and the low operating load of compound fertilizer factories and inventory accumulation lead to insufficient willingness to purchase raw materials. Although inventory is being depleted and downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased due to factors such as rainfall in North China and the Middle East geopolitical conflict, overall, the market is expected to consolidate in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton and closed at 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86%. The trading volume was 225,410 lots, a decrease of 23,795 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 17,863 lots and short positions decreased by 1,616 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed significantly [2]. - Spot: After the futures market weakened and downstream resistance to high prices emerged, market trading became dull. However, upstream factories still have many orders to fulfill, and there is little pressure to cut prices for now. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1780 - 1810 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On June 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,581, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous trading day, with multiple delivery warehouses experiencing a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, while the futures closing price weakened. Based on Shandong region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply Data: According to Feiyitong data, on June 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,300 tons, unchanged from the previous day [10].
情绪降温，盘面回调
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-06-20 11:25