Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-20 11:57Report Title - The report is titled "Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market Weekly Report" [3] Report Date - The report is dated June 20, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - International oil prices strengthened due to the worsening Israel-Iran conflict, driving up the prices of PVC ethylene-based raw materials and causing the PVC futures market to fluctuate upwards this week. As of June 20, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,903 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from last week's close [9] - On the supply side, some PVC plants in Henan and Xinjiang underwent maintenance this week, leading to a 0.63% decrease in the PVC capacity utilization rate to 78.62%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 1.49% to 44.31%, with the pipe and profile operating rates both declining. In terms of inventory, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% to 56.93 tons, with a slowdown in the destocking trend and relatively low inventory pressure [9] - The domestic PVC industry is currently in a period of intensive maintenance. New Pufa Chemical has plans to shut down two sets of equipment with a total capacity of 500,000 tons in late June, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream demand is in the off-season, and the Indian market is affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification, anti-dumping duties, and the rainy season. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide plants will resume production next week, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts. The possibility of the United States participating in the Israel-Iran conflict is increasing, and international oil prices may fluctuate strongly, driving up the prices of ethylene-based raw materials. Considering that the domestic PVC production is mainly based on the calcium carbide process, the PVC futures market is less sensitive to oil prices than LLDPE and PP. Overall, the V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly next week, with resistance around 4,980 yuan/ton [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights - Price: International oil prices strengthened, driving up the prices of PVC ethylene-based raw materials and causing the PVC futures market to fluctuate upwards. As of June 20, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4,903 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from last week [9] - Fundamentals: Supply - Some PVC plants in Henan and Xinjiang underwent maintenance, with the capacity utilization rate decreasing by 0.63% to 78.62%. Demand - The downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 1.49% to 44.31%, with the pipe and profile operating rates declining by 2.81% and 1.3% respectively. Inventory - The PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% to 56.93 tons, with a slowdown in the destocking trend. Cost - The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene-based raw materials increased, with the average national cost of the calcium carbide process rising to around 5,052 yuan/ton and that of the ethylene process rising to 5,596 yuan/ton. The profit of the calcium carbide process slightly improved, while the loss of the ethylene process deepened [9] - Outlook: The domestic PVC industry is in a period of intensive maintenance. New Pufa Chemical has plans to shut down two sets of equipment with a total capacity of 500,000 tons in late June, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. The domestic downstream demand is in the off-season, and the Indian market is affected by uncertainties. Next week, some calcium carbide plants will resume production, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted. International oil prices may fluctuate strongly, driving up the prices of ethylene-based raw materials. The V2509 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly next week, with resistance around 4,980 yuan/ton [9] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated upwards this week, and the number of registered warehouse receipts remained stable [10] - The trading volume of the main contract fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [14] Spot Market - CFR China quoted at $710/ton (unchanged), Southeast Asia quoted at $670/ton (unchanged), and India quoted at $720/ton (up $10/ton) [21][25] - The spot prices of calcium carbide-based and ethylene-based PVC in East China increased this week [28] - The basis fluctuated within a range, and the futures market remained in a contango state [32] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - The price of semi-coke remained stable, while the price of calcium carbide increased. The operating rates of semi-coke and calcium carbide were 55.89% and 63.10% respectively [36][41] - The CIF price of VCM was $520/ton, and the international price of EDC was $176/ton [45] Supply - The PVC production capacity is expected to grow by 10.77% in 2025, and the output in May was 2.0197 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase [49] - The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased this week [53] Demand - The operating rates of PVC pipes and profiles decreased this week [57] - The export volume of PVC flooring increased in April [61] - The export volume of PVC decreased in April, while the import volume increased significantly [64] Inventory - The PVC social inventory decreased on a month-on-month basis [69] Cost - The costs of both the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process increased this week [73] Profit - The losses of both the calcium carbide process and the ethylene process deepened this week [80] 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20-day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 15.01%, and the implied volatilities of at-the-money call and put options were 21.51% [85]