Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today. The SC08 contract rose 1.36% intraday. The geopolitical concerns have eased slightly, but the supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist. Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options. The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2]. - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall. The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil. The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the FU cracking is weak. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall. The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited. The terminal demand is expected to increase, and the inventory data continues to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly. The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive. The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly [5]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The international oil price continued to rise overnight and weakened after the opening today, with the SC08 contract rising 1.36% intraday [2]. - Trump postponed the decision on whether to attack Iran for two weeks, and the geopolitical concerns have eased slightly [2]. - The supply risks related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exist before the return to the negotiation table [2]. - Crude oil is still judged to be oscillating strongly, and investors can continue to hold low-cost call options [2]. - The spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise due to the direct impact of geopolitical risks on the supply of medium-sulfur crude oil and the support of tanker freight rates [2]. Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil futures followed the crude oil to rise and then fall [3]. - The Israel-Iran conflict has boosted the geopolitical premium of high-sulfur fuel oil, and the high-sulfur fuel oil has been supported since the conflict broke out [3]. - The demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in ship bunkering and deep processing is low, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is greatly reduced due to the high cracking valuation [3]. - The FU cracking is weak under the strong crude oil, and the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is still abundant, while the demand for low-sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU cracking continues to decline [3]. Asphalt - Asphalt followed the oil price to rise and then fall [4]. - The increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited due to the consumption of crude oil quotas and the planned increase in the operation of deep processing equipment by major refineries after the maintenance peak [4]. - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has continued to increase month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers has increased significantly year-on-year from January to April, indicating that the terminal demand is expected to increase [4]. - As of June 19, the weekly inventory data of refineries and society has continued to decline. However, the BU cracking is under pressure before the upward risk of oil price caused by geopolitical risks is lifted [4]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is still fermenting, and the international market is running strongly [5]. - The domestic chemical demand has rebounded, but the profit margin is under pressure due to the increase in import costs [5]. - The arrival volume in the middle of the month and the release of refinery gas have both increased. If the geopolitical risks are relieved, the supply pressure will bring a strong downward drive [5]. - The fundamentals still have certain loose pressure, and the disk is oscillating strongly under the support of strong crude oil and political risks [5].
能源日报-20250620
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-20 12:12