黑色产业数据每日监测-20250620

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodity futures stabilized and rose slightly today. The terminal demand for finished products is expected to face the risk of weakening in the off - season, and the iron ore price range may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures stabilized and rose slightly today. The rebar closed at 2992 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton, up 0.39%; the iron ore main contract closed at 703 yuan/ton; and the coking coal and coke both rose [1] Market Analysis - The inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline to 1.33889 million tons this week, reaching a five - month low with a decline of 1.16%. Except for cold - rolled steel, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand rose by 160,800 tons to 884,180 tons in total [1] - The profitability of 247 steel mills rebounded to 59.31% week - on - week, and the driving force for production reduction was limited. The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82% week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased to 90.79%. The daily average pig iron output stopped falling after five consecutive declines, increasing by 5700 tons to 242,180 tons week - on - week, and increasing by 22,400 tons year - on - year [1] - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 4.49% week - on - week to 33.527 million tons, a decrease of 1.577 million tons, but it was still at the highest level in the same period in recent years, with a year - on - year increase of 10.59%. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 1.564 million tons to 25.175 million tons week - on - week, within the normal fluctuation range [1] - Considering the expectation of the mine's end - of - season rush at the end of June and the subsequent transmission of high overseas shipments to the future domestic arrival volume, the iron ore supply is becoming looser. The daily average port iron ore clearance volume rebounded from a three - month low this week. The weekly inventory of imported ore at 47 ports in the country decreased by 695,800 tons to 14.43356 million tons, nearly 7% lower year - on - year [1] - With the absolute low inventory in the factory, steel mills replenished inventory as needed. The inventory of imported ore in the factory rebounded by 1.3756 million tons to 8.93624 million tons this week, also at a one - month high; the inventory - to - consumption ratio rebounded by 0.4 days to 29.69 days [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]