白糖、生猪上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Sugar and hog prices are rising, vegetable oils are at high levels, and corn is moving upward. Each specific variety is affected by different factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Sugar rebounds due to low inventory and the approaching summer consumption peak. Hogs rise strongly as policy requires pig enterprises to reduce sow inventory, mid - year promotions boost sales, and slaughterhouse operating rates increase. Vegetable oils remain high supported by strong crude oil and positive news from production areas. Corn prices move up due to tight supply and a significant drop in imports [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Sugar - Focus: The main sugar 2509 contract breaks through and moves up. In May 2025, sugar imports increased (34.764 tons, a 157.80% month - on - month and 1954.93% year - on - year increase), but the cumulative imports from January to May decreased by 50.1% year - on - year. Low inventory and the consumption peak may further reduce inventory, supporting prices. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 5684 and resistance at 5732 [2]. 3.2.2 Hogs - Focus: The hog 2509 contract rises strongly, entering an upward trend again. The supply is stable as farmers are not very willing to sell. Mid - year promotions in some areas increase slaughterhouse operating rates (27.97% in the week of June 19, a 0.75 - percentage - point week - on - week and 4.22 - percentage - point year - on - year increase). There is a phenomenon of second - fattening. Policies like stockpiling and reducing sow inventory support prices. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 13730 and resistance at 14000 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Focus: The main soybean oil 2509 contract rises but then falls back, continuing the upward trend. Tensions in the Middle East keep oil prices high, and the strengthening cost side in the domestic market provides upward momentum. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8100 and resistance at 8200 [5]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil - Focus: The main palm oil 2509 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Strong exports (a 10.9% increase in exports from June 1 - 20) and a 4% decrease in production from June 1 - 15 support prices, but India's reduced procurement weakens the increase. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 8494 and resistance at 8600 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - Focus: The main egg 2508 contract first rises then falls, with a narrowing increase. Low egg prices arouse bottom - fishing sentiment, and high - temperature weather reduces laying rates. However, the high - humidity rainy season suppresses demand. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3600 and resistance at 3655 [9][11]. 3.2.6 Soybean Meal - Focus: The soybean meal 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down. Record - high soybean imports in May bring some pressure, but rising Brazilian soybean export premiums increase costs, supporting prices. Technically, it remains strong. The strategy is to hold long orders, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3087 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - Focus: The main corn 2509 contract continues to rise, supported by tight supply. Spot prices are firm, and port inventories are decreasing. In May 2025, corn imports dropped 81.5% year - on - year. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 2400 and resistance at 2415 [14]. 3.2.8 Cotton - Focus: The main cotton 2509 contract fluctuates and closes down, continuing the sideways trend. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but a sharp drop in imports supports prices. The strategy is to close long orders and conduct short - term trading, with support at 13450 and resistance at 13600 [16]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Focus: The main red date 2509 contract falls back after a sharp rise. High - temperature weather in Xinjiang may affect production as the jujubes are in a critical growth period. Technically, it remains in an upward trend. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders during the correction, with support at 9200 and resistance at 9640 [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - Focus: The main apple 2510 contract rises significantly. Apple inventory is low (116.49 tons as of June 18, a 10.97 - ton decrease from the previous period), and new - season apples are in the late bagging stage. Technically, it shows strength. The strategy is to hold light - position long orders, with support at 7700 and resistance at 7800 [20].