策略日报：缩量下跌-20250620

Group 1: Major Asset Tracking - The bond market shows an overall increase in interest rate bonds, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones. The report suggests that the stock market's low volatility and weak fundamentals will limit upward potential, indicating a likely downward adjustment in the future. The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital due to increasing geopolitical tensions [18][6][22]. Group 2: A-Share Market - The A-share market experienced a volume decline, with the ChiNext index falling by 0.84%. The total trading volume was 1.09 trillion, down by 0.19 trillion from the previous day, with 1,465 stocks rising and 3,455 stocks falling. The report emphasizes that under weak fundamentals, the probability of a bullish index is low, and future market movements are likely to amplify volatility downward. Investors are advised to take profits and shift to lower-priced dividend and agricultural stocks [22][24][27]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the potential for a second adjustment. The report notes that the long-term U.S. Treasury bond issuance is facing challenges, with rates briefly exceeding 5%. The report anticipates that as U.S. Treasury rates rise, recession narratives may regain market focus, suggesting that investors should wait for better buying opportunities [27][8][29]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1843, a decline of 80 basis points from the previous close. The report indicates that the RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpectedly positive trade data between China and the U.S. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with the previous high of 7.42 potentially marking the peak of this depreciation cycle. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [31][32]. Group 5: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index remained flat, with coal, polyester, and construction materials leading gains, while precious metals, coal chemicals, and non-ferrous sectors lagged. Given the high volatility in oil prices and geopolitical uncertainties, the report recommends a cautious approach. However, it notes a technical trend indicating stabilization at the bottom, suggesting that optimistic investors may consider light positions [36][10][37].